Thursday, December 31, 2015

S&P down 15 points for 2015

S&P 500

2058.90  12/31/14
2043.94  12/31/15

Happy New Year

The S&P is back in the more narrow trading range.  I don't think it makes much difference like I said. The wider range is wide and some traders may make money swinging in it.  Most will stay pat.  Good luck with that.

The Surveillance State

I deposited $20 cash into one of my Bank of America checking accounts to square it up for year end bookkeeping.  The bank requires me to fill out a deposit slip with the name on the account, the account number.  Normal stuff I always do when going to the teller.

But this time the teller asked me if I was depositing the money for myself.  I asked what do you mean?  He said he needed my ID.  I asked, “Like my debit card?”  Yes he said.  I didn’t have it on me.  He said your drivers license will do.  I said for a stinking $20 deposit you want to see my ID!.  No, I had to swipe it.  So I did.  The teller explained the new law that all deposits have to be reported to the Federal government regardless of the amount.  It previously was $10,000 if I am not mistaken.  And now whoever makes the deposit must be identified.  They surveillance state is concerned that someone other than the account holder might make a deposit to an account.


So somewhere in some vast government database there is a $20 deposit and attached to it is the information on the digital strip from my drivers license.

Republicans give law to Obama illegalness

The Republican party gave law to:

The Trans Pacific Trade Pact
The Iranian nuclear "agreement"
and now,
CASA

The Republican Party is done and almost gone.  My god, Obama makes up law and then the Republicans follow on with actual law to support Obama's made up law.

Deep State - CASA - College sexual assult

Rubio.  First the Gang of Eight.  Now, CASA.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428910/campus-rape-courts-republicans-resisting

Also Charles Grassley and Kelly Ayotte.  There is no reason to vote Republican ever again.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Squeeze continues

I don't think breaking out of the current squeeze, in either direction, is a big deal.  There are support and resistance lines with a much wider range that I think will contain the index.  For awhile.



{click chart for clarity}

How is it possible 191 million register voters are in a database?

That is the whole country! Why do we let this happen?  Schmucks all?

Forbe's Magazine online:

Dec 28, 2015 @ 08:50 AM 50,841 views
191 Million US Voter Registration Records Leaked In Mystery Database

I cover security and privacy for Forbes. I’ve been breaking news and writing features on these topics for major publications since 2010. As a freelancer, I worked for The Guardian, Vice Motherboard, Wired and BBC.com, amongst many others. I was named BT Security Journalist of the year in 2012 and 2013 for a range of exclusive articles, and in 2014 was handed Best News Story for a feature on US government harassment of security professionals. I like to hear from hackers who are breaking things for either fun or profit and researchers who've uncovered nasty things on the web. You can email me at TFox-Brewster@forbes.com, or tbthomasbrewster@gmail.com. If you are worried about prying eyes, here's my PGP fingerprint for the Gmail address: 1EF8 CD0E 342E 7C50 430B 1F87 14E4 1420 BBFB F0B4
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A whitehat hacker has uncovered a database sitting on the Web containing various pieces of personal information related to 191 million American citizens registered to vote. On top of the concomitant problems of disclosing such a significant leak to that many people, no one knows who is actually responsible for the misconfiguration that left the data open to anyone.
Researcher Chris Vickery, who this month found myriad databases left open to all and sundry, told FORBES he has his hands on all 300GB of voter data, which includes names, home addresses, phone numbers, dates of birth, party affiliations, and logs of whether or not they had voted in primary or general elections. The data appears to date back to 2000. It does not contain financial data or social security numbers.
 Vickery looked up his own information in the database table covering Texas and confirmed it was all accurate. Reporters from CSO and DataBreaches.net did the same. Vickery also looked up several police officers in his city and confirmed the information was correct.
 Finally, I gave Vickery my parents’ surname and home town in the United States. He found them in the database in a matter of minutes. It would appear every registered US voter is included in the leak.
But their various attempts to disclose the breach to the right party were close to fruitless. DataBreaches.net and Vickery chased NationBuilder, a service that sets up digital campaigns for political parties. They believed certain markers in the database pointed to a NationBuilder-designed database. A NationBuilder spokesperson told DataBreaches.net that the IP address linked to the leaked database was not one of theirs, and the IP address was not related to any of their hosted clients. It could be that a non-hosted NationBuilder customer was responsible for the misconfiguration.
No one has taken responsibility for the leak. CSO contacted other political tech groups – Catalist, Political Data, Aristotle, L2 Political, and NGP VAN – and all denied the database belonged to them. The FBI New York field office and Internet Crime Complaint Center were contacted by DataBreaches.net and Vickery too. The FBI had not offered comment to FORBES at the time of publication.
That this kind of information is open to anyone might not alarm at first glance. Much of the data is publicly available across states as campaigners seek to home in on certain demographics. But some charge thousands of dollars for the pleasure. Many also place restrictions on the use of the information for commercial purposes.
Right now, thanks to someone’s carelessness, it’s free to anyone who can find what Vickery did. That means anyone in the world can find out where a person in the US lives and what political beliefs they may have. If they can find the database, scammers and marketing folk alike will likely benefit most.

Tips and comments are welcome at TFox-Brewster@forbes.com or tbthomasbrewster@gmail.com

Proud to be a crazy Muslim - fortunately for us

The crazy Muslims are very proud and thankfully they show it.  It aids in profiling them.

Terror Mosques - you better believe it

Now, U.S. government officials think there could be up to 50,000 Tablighi Jamaat members across the United States.

Oh.  They reside at mosques.  Sleep there at least.

This is the name of the San Bernardino Terror Mosque:

Dar al Uloom Islamiyah00

Problem for Russia but not USofA


Reuters today:

Obama has suggested as recently as this month that Moscow is being sucked into a foreign venture that will drain its resources and bog down its military.
"An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire and it won't work," Obama said on Oct. 2.

On Dec. 1, he raised the prospect of Russia becoming "bogged down in an inconclusive and paralyzing civil conflict."
Me: But it is just fine for the US because we have the reserve currency and can borrow to finance interminable war.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Merry Christmas

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Triangle squeeze

Real Final Sales Q3 2015 final

Real GDP eliminating the effects of inventory changes is 2.1%:



Real GDP eliminating the effects of both inventory changes and imports and exports is 2.8%:



Conclusion:  RGDP 2.1%, RFS, 2.1%, RFS to Domestic 2.8% is pretty good assuming it isn't overstated by the 1% deflator.  Sure we want 3% across the board but the world economy is isn't doing so well so exports are weak.

Q3 2015 final GDP report and the deflator

Gross Domestic Product 3.07 percent on the headline


GDP adjusted for inflation is 2.14 %


The difference, the GDP deflator, is .93% or 1%.

If they used the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE, which is at 1.3% RGDP would be lower.

If they used Core CPI which is at 2.0 % RGDP would be even lower.

If they used Median CPI which is at 2/1% RGDP would likewise be lower.

Santa Rally has strong internals

Improving breath has spurred the Santa rally.

Advances less declines, highs less lows, number of shares above 50, 150, and 200 day moving average, have all been positive.

Joy to the Season.

Real estate, stocks and bonds - peak prices?

The best time to buy a house is when interest rates are high because prices are low.  Then you refinance repeatedly as interest rates decline.  As your house price goes up.

Declining interest rates since the "great expansion" or as Greenspan called it the "great moderation", have increased asset prices.  Obviously there can be a point where prices get too extreme as was seen by the great recession.

Where do you think we are now?  Are we at the end of a multi-decades cycle of declining interest rates?  Can interest rates stay relatively low and stabilize asset prices meaning asset prices don't go up much and don't go down much?  What do you think?

Existing home prices back to the excessive peak before the great recession.



New home prices back to the excessive peak before the great recession.





Here is the inverse of the 30 year Treasury yield to represent price:




New Home Sales

Headline new home sales is 490,000 on an annual basis.



How they get 490,000 is a mystery to mean when the actual month sales were 34,000.  Multiplying 34,000 by 12 gives you 408,000.  So I guess they are giving credit to November being a slowish month for new home sales.



Here is a close up of the above actual monthly sales chart:



Conclusion: actual monthly sales are back were they peaked in 2012 and 2010.  While I consider this not good when considering other things that have slowed down, it isn't so bad to have flat sales.  I know that new home sales have a big add on effect but I remember all too well how bad it was to have excessive new home sales leading and causing the great recession.

Da ya think the high price for new home sales slows down volume?




Existing Home Sales shocked



Here is the mean price of existing homes



Here is the median price of existing homes



Conclusion:  prices are back up to where they were before the great recession.  But volume of sales never got close to that excessive peak.  Prices back at peak while volume is low.  I don't think that is a good sign.

Rate increase little affect as of Dec 23

Fed day was December 16 and bonds, the dollar, and the S&P, are almost back to where they were on that day.







Rein of Stability may be over

Here is my post of on how stable things had been with me asking why would anyone want to disrupt that.  Actually I said they should be shot.  I guess that brief period of stability could be the calm before a storm.

Stability post October 2015

Updating it:

CRB not stable since October



I consider the 30 year bond to remain stable



The dollar not very stable since October



The 10 year not so stable since October



Oil of course



Yield curve losing stability definitely flattened but is at a support level




Monday, December 21, 2015

Economy is all about debt - but you knew that - but with less efficacy



GDP and Total Non-Financial Sector Debt are on different scales.  Even though GDP, red, is on top it is the left scale and is smaller than debt.

What the chart above shows is that the economy grows on debt.

The chart below uses real GDP.  It is clear that since 2000, debt, excluding banks and other financial institutions own debt, has grown faster than inflation adjusted GDP.  Meaning inflation has been a more important and provides apparent growth.  Meaning debt is pushing GDP growth but with less efficacy.

Philadelphia Fed national activity index not good



The Philadelphia Fed national business index has been mostly below zero in 2015.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index - not good



The 3 month moving average of this volatile index went below zero in March and hasn't risen above zero since.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Merge the Republican and Democrat Parties

The political battle in this country is a battle of two groups of Oligarchs with one group Republican Party and the other Democrat Party.


The two groups are not that different from each other.  I think the Republican Party elites should merge with the Democrat Party. There is enough booty to go around so they can all get their share.

The GOP insiders and the base

The Republican Party insiders could have co-oped Trump by addressing the concerns of the base.  It appears the insiders forgot that they got their majorities in the House and Senate because of the base.

Appearances are wrong.  The GOP elite never wanted to win.  Their game is and always has been pointing out to the base such and such radical proposal from the Democrat Party was compromised down by the Republican Party.  And as such the base should continue to support the GOP.  To prevent such extremes from taking law.

This has been a great game for the GOP.  They never wanted to lead.  It is hard work to do that.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

GOP on the verge of extinction – I know, I say that a lot - GOP primary

The political class doesn’t think low wage people read or listen to the radio, I guess.  The reports on the internet and radio about the omnibus spending bill leave these people to believe that there is treason within the GOP.

The omnibus spending bill which Paul Ryan’s website called, “…bill to advance Republican Priorities”, is the final straw that breaks the camel’s back.

At this time these low wage people will only vote for Trump.  Without Trump they will not vote.

The only hope for the GOP is to get Rubio, who is the only one who beats Clinton, barely, among all registered voters, to actually get clear that he is against mass immigration instead of his mealy mouth explanations.  The fact is he is a Hispanophile like Jeb Bush, and the GOP’s business oligarchs want mass migration.  Rubio should go to the donors in private and say he is going to lie to the primary voters so keep funding him.

The low wage voters are very sensitive to bull shit and Rubio dishes it.  That is why he is slipping in the primary.  Rubio has long explanations which I give him credit for being able to say rapidly.  But still, it sounds like massive hedging.

Low wage voters are more likely to switch from Trump to Cruz but Cruz doesn't poll well against Clinton among all primary voters. 
   

Friday, December 18, 2015

Schmucks at Fox News




https://youtu.be/UFxENqDyWCQ

US of A is populated by schmucks

On June 8, 2015, an adult female dog that had recently been picked up from the streets of Cairo, Egypt, and shipped by a U.S. animal rescue organization to the United States was confirmed to have rabies by the Virginia Department of General Services Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services (DCLS). This dog was part of a large shipment of dogs and cats from Egypt that rescue organizations had distributed to multiple states for adoption. During the investigation, public health officials learned that the rabies vaccination certificate used for entry of the rabid dog into the United States had intentionally been falsified to avoid exclusion of the dog from entry under CDC's current dog importation regulations. This report underscores the ongoing risk posed by U.S. importation of domestic animals that have not been adequately vaccinated against rabies.

This is what volatility looks like

The lower parallel support line was well drawn.  Today, price did not go below the "all important" 2000 level.  They say all important because of psychology.  Round numbers like 20, 50, or 70 are psychological.  And numbers like 2000 or 2100 or 1900 are really really psychological.



{click for clarity}

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Support line



{click to enlarge}

Public debt over 100% of GDP - exciting milestone

The chart is updated to 10/31/15 $18.151 trillion.  
12/10/15 it was $18.762 trillion, another new high.



Hitting 100% is a milestone.  Exciting isn't it.

Consumer debt vs. disposable personal income

Dec 31, 2007 the onset of the great recession, disposable personal income was $10.7 trillion, and is now $13.6 trillion, up 27%.

Dec 31, 2007 total consumer credit was $2.6 trillion and is now $3.5 trillion, up 35%.

With consumer credit up so much more than disposable personal income you might think it would be a problem.  If so, you forgot the difference in interest rates.  Now they are much lower and the burden on the consumer much less.





Rising interest rates will be like the tide going out, you find out who was swimming naked.

If rates go rising.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Triangle expanded

My momentum system has me



for now.

Triangles - I can't put a happy face on this

It is still early

Want to get infuriated? Admiral Ace Lyons


Admiral Ace Lyons

France’s Nation Front party is not “Far Right”

The entire f_ing media always and I mean always prefaces Marine Le Pen and the National Front party as “far right”.  As in, “The far right National Front party won new seats in the most recent election”.

They are called far right but they are actually far left.  That they are anti Muslim immigration makes them right wingers to the global leftist media.  They put France first ahead of the European Union.  It makes the leftist media think they are National Socialists like the Nazis.


France is an extreme case of over regulation.  The central government tells restaurants what time of day they may open and what time of day they may close.  It has really hurts their economy.  Le Pen and her National Front party are to the left of the socialist party which itself is very far left.

http://bit.ly/1SL3Arw

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Paul Ryan needs to be exported

Muslims do not have a constitutional right to come to this country.

Paul Ryan has failed this country.

Wage earners are poor suckers

Wage earners as a class only keep up with inflation whether

looking at CPI


or core CPI


This class of poor suckers are less and less important



And give more and more of their disposable personal income to their landlords





Middle Managers only make $5 to $7 more per hour.  Really, they are the suckers.  Labor laws don't protect them and they are squeezed between upper management and their employees under them.

Saved by the triangle

so far, but the day just started