Wednesday, June 24, 2015

6/24/15 Now for the really bad news regarding the formula: (addition of population + productivity) = economy


You really can have a reduction of population because the per capita economy remains the same and standards of living remain the same.

The problem is the entitlements.  I got tired of trying to convince people that the budget deficit each year is false because it is accounting on a cash basis.  When using accrual accounting like businesses are required to use, the budget deficit is $5 trillion dollars each year.  That isn’t my number-I don’t have the capacity to figure that out.  It comes from the Social Security Administration.

Those of us 65 years old now will keep getting our entitlements for a long time.  And we may hang in there long enough to see the disaster we created.  I am hoping our children have the nerve to default on the nation debt when the time comes.

6/24/15 Now for the bad news regarding the previous post


The economy probably cannot grow faster than slow because of demographics.  From the 1950s until very recently, population growth of the prime producing years of the population grew.  Now it has flatlined, actually down a little.  And it is going to decline significantly.  So the tail wind is now a head wind.
The economy is the addition of population + productivity.  You would think it would be ok to have the population decline because the economy per capita remains the same.  I think it fool hardy to import millions of low skilled and hostile people to keep the absolute data (total economy) of the economy growing.  Importing them does in fact add to the population in the formula above.  But they reduce productivity so we are no better off for it.

6/24/15 So you think the economy is doing poorly with -.2% growth? Think again.


Here is the same exact data excluding business inventory changes.  Doesn’t look bad at all.



Here is the same exact data excluding both business inventory changes and exports.  Doesn't look bad at all.

 
 
Oh.  You want higher growth.  How about five percent?  Note how the line crashes after exceeding 5%.  I am for slow and steady.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

06/23/15 Comment regarding the desire for inflation

White liberal elites want the US to be like the EU.  What is the EU?  It is a modern version of the 500 year old European social structure called feudalism.  The EU is a benign, modern serfdom (good luck with that).  What better way to push the elitist goal of killing off the American experiment of having a middle class than use higher prices to force the middle class into the corner so they will accept government handouts.

06/23/15 Ya Wanna See Where Consumer Money Goes?

Health care:  this chart is shockingly log scale

Rents


Education

06/23/15 Its All About the Dollar

A theme out there is that lower commodity prices indicate a slow world economy.  But I say it is all about the dollar.  I think one has to look elsewhere to view the condition of the world economy.