Tuesday, July 14, 2015

7/14/15 reflationary trade appears to be ending

Bonds going up signifies a "deflation" trade.  Bonds going down is signifies "inflation" trade.  Note that stocks have gone fairly sideways in 2015 while the "reflationary" trade was in progress.  I think the 50 day moving average is bottoming and will start to move up.  If so the "reflationary" trade is over and implies one should be long bonds and short stocks.  Short stocks that is, if it wasn't for the PPT.


In part I believe the "reflationary" trade is over because the world economy is slowing down.

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