Friday, July 24, 2015

7/24/15 New Single Family Home Sales ARE GREAT. Don't believe the government seasonally adjusted bullshit.

Here are the actual total number of new single family homes sold in their respective quarters:

Q1'12 87,000
Q2'12 103,000
Q3'12 94,000
Q4'12 85,000
Q1'13 109,000
Q2'13 126,000
Q3'13 95,000
Q4'13 99,000
Q1'14 107,000
Q2'14 120,000
Q3'14 108,000
Q4'14 104,000
Q1'15 130,000
Q2'15 143,000

What is there to complain about?  Here are the actual sales in the months of June.

June '12    34,000
June '13    43.000
June '14    38,000
June '15    45,000

What is there to complain about?  Here are the actual sales in 2015 by month.

Jan'15      39,000
Feb'15     45,000
Mar'15     46,000
Apr'15     50,000
May'15    48,000
Jun'15      45,000

Because June is supposed to be a big month of sales they seasonally adjust it to look negative even though this was the best June in four years.

I am not saying the economy isn't slowing down.  I really don't know.  I am not making predictions here.  I am just pointing out the actual sales.



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