Sunday, July 5, 2015

7/5/15 Eventually more QE and this this time to create some decent inflation

I argue that slow and steady growth is much better than an economic roller coaster ride.  However, we are in a perpetual recover because we cannot achieve normalcy.  Demographics prevents being able to grow out of our debt and unfunded liabilities.
If government debt was used properly, that is for projects with a rate of return, there would not be a problem in reducing GDP with a declining population as per capita GDP could remain the same.  But government debt is used for consumption.  When this happens people view government as good, as compassionate.  However, the money goes poof gone.
It means serving the debt requires more and more income.  The powers that be know it.  It is the reason that the Chamber of Commerce and Jeb Bush want more immigration.  They know we need a growing population to increase the absolute amount of GDP, even if the per capital GDP declines due to the poor productivity of immigrants.  Just adding to population does increase GDP if only to feed and house them.
I expect the FRB to be dovish over the next several years with rate increases that will pose no threat to the economy.  Eventually as debt service takes up more and more income, I expect the FRB to become active at a level that will surprise us.

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