Friday, August 28, 2015

8/28/15 GDP second estimate for Q2 2015

Above:  the way they report GDP month over month doesn't look all that good unless you figure the blue line will not again drop to the zero line.  This presentations shows a sideways trend.

Above:  eliminate inventory changes and report year over year and you see an uptrend.  The last five quarters yoy are +2.3,  +3.0,  +2.6,  +2.4,  2.4.  Exports pull this rate down as you can see below.

Above:  eliminate both inventory changes and exports and it looks fairly good.  The last 5 quarters yoy were +2.3,  +3.0,  +3.0,  +3.0,  +2.9.  I do wish for good exports but most important to me is the growth in the US.  Three percent growth will curve a lot of ills.

Above: this is why the Fed is afraid to raise rates.  When the Fed rate, red, goes sideways GDP goes up.  When the Fed rate goes up, GDP goes down.

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