Monday, August 3, 2015

8/3/15 Reflationary trade revisited

On 7/14/15 is posted:

reflationary trade appears to be ending

Bonds going up signifies a "deflation" trade.  Bonds going down is signifies "inflation" trade.  Note that stocks have gone fairly sideways in 2015 while the "reflationary" trade was in progress.  I think the 50 day moving average is bottoming and will start to move up.  If so the "reflationary" trade is over and implies one should be long bonds and short stocks.  Short stocks that is, if it wasn't for the PPT.  In part I believe the "reflationary" trade is over because the world economy is slowing down.

The TLT 50 day moving average does appear to have bottomed and started up.

The 30 year bond likewise

And the 10 note not turning quite up yet

Corporate investment grade bonds not turning up yet

I don't know what to think of high yield bonds

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