Friday, September 25, 2015

Heartbreak rally

What a flip.  Or is it a flop?  It used to be that an increase in probability of a Fed Funds rate increase would drop the market.  Now just the opposite.

Yellen spoke yesterday after the close giving the impression that there would be rate increase “this year” barring any shocks.  Fed Funds futures implied probability jumped and overnight equity futures rose nicely.  And the stock market was up nicely today.  Then at 2pm ET or so, Fed Funds futures implied probability dropped sharply and the stock market followed down.

Such a weird change in sentiment.

Yellen had previously trashed Biotech and then it seemed to calm and today it appeared to lead the Naspack down.

This is really heartbreaking.  I figured Whew! the S&P was finally going to rally.  It is obvious that it is going to be a WWI slog all the way.

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