Tuesday, September 29, 2015

I can't get excited about emplloyment

I just can't get excited about employment. No excuses. Full time jobs are what matters. Here I compare the growth of full time jobs and population growth of working age people from the beginning of the great recession, December 2007, through August 2015.

December '07   121,609,000 people working full time
December '09   110,559,000 people working full time
                           11,050,000 loss of full time jobs

August '15        122,024000 people working full time
December '09   110,559,000 people working full time
                           11,465,000 regained full time jobs

The job market was too hot in December '07 because of so many people employed in financial services and real estate. We have gotten back to that point and then some and you wouldn't really call the job market hot right now. So this is good. But still...
there are only 11,465,000
                       11,050,000
                            415,000 more full time jobs during a period when...

Dec '07   196,488,870 15 to 64 year old working age population
Mar '15   204,026,415 15 to 64 year old working age population
                   7,537,545 more working age population

Again,      415,000 more full time jobs during a period when
              7,537,545 there are this many more working age people

The excuse is that from December '07 to August '15 part time jobs grew from 24,745,000 jobs to 26,916,000 for a growth of 2,171,000 part time jobs.

Ok so we had full time growth of    415,000
and part time growth of                 2,171,000
for a total growth of                       2,586,000 total jobs counting                                                                               both full and part time

Yet the working age population grew three times that fast. AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS 5.1% ?


What do I know? They are the experts.






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