Monday, September 28, 2015

Maybe test the lows first

What I wanted was for the S&P to charge right up to the top triangle line as a first leg up.  What I want is meaningless.  BC said the market has to test its lows because that is what the market does and he bought SDS.  So perhaps testing the lows is what is now happening.  Be prepared to sleep with the light on.

As I said recently, testing the market lows is likely to have my longish term momentum system go climatic setting the system up for a cue to go long.  It may not give that cue and instead...

If the market goes below the lows, I have no idea where it would stop.  There are lots of chartists and Fibonacci people out there with those numbers and all those numbers are a very very low S&P. Some are saying this will happen.  Then you will be leaving the light on at night and throwing up.

My optimism (which couldn't be in a more relative sense) is based on history of the weekly 50 day moving average of the S&P that I expect it to rally to.  Because that is what the market does after it breaks.

Upon price reaching the 200 day moving average it is a second chance to bail out.  When that time comes many people will say to themselves that there must be a reason why the market rallied so much and will stay in.  What do I know?  I will stay in, if my momentum system gets me in, until my momentum system gets me out.  But that is only me. That time is a ways off. In the meantime, the S&P needs to break the thicker blue down trend line for me to make a sigh of relief.

{click to clarify}

I would like to take this moment to reiterate that all of you reading this blog took the pledge that you know I don't know what I am talking about.

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