Thursday, September 24, 2015

Thursday Triangle

The chartologists expect a strong rally from today’s low that was expected to be 1903.  It was 1909.  They expect the panic low of 1867 to be tested but don’t say how high the expected strong rally will go first.  So I am forced to draw my triangle.  I guess I am a triangleologist.

One scenario.  The S&P goes to the top of the expanded triangle then turns south to test the panic lows.  I prefer that the S&P breaks upward out of the triangle upon reaching the top line of the triangle giving people a second chance to bail out of the market at where they had wished they had already sold.

My longish term momentum system won’t get me back into the market if the desired scenario takes place.  The system will require the market to decline sufficiently to be a climatic low.  It appears that could happen to my system with a test of the panic lows.  My system is not infallible.  The market could go to new highs, leaving me behind.

I am sure there will be a lot of people throwing up if and when the test of the panic lows takes place.

My reading of the chartologists is that they expect an ultimate low of 1780.  They get there with looking at weekly, monthly, and some are looking at quarterly charts.  They see wedges and pennants and believe them to be predictive.  They are not infallible.

I don’t understand what the Fibonacci traders are saying about retracements failing.  I think the algos remain a bit confused but they go along to get along and may jump onto this rally. These algos are fairly fickle momentum systems.

{click to clarify}

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