Friday, October 9, 2015

I can't get excited about the economy

We grew up in a magical period.  The population sweet spot.  That is over as total population growth has slowed down.  The population of working age people has flatlined.  This is a world wide phenomenon.

Add ever declining interest rates to the boomer population sweet spot.  This allowed for borrowing more and keeping the payments the same.  What happens when interest rates are no longer declining?  Decreased borrowing.

Economic progress = population growth + productivity growth + credit expansion.  I seriously doubt productivity growth can make up for the reduction in population growth and credit expansion.

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