Monday, November 30, 2015

CO2 can be too low for plants

What a shock.  CO2 can be too low for plants.  The alarm beeps and the red light flashes.  I guess when that happens you have to go into your green house and breathe.  Breathe life back into your poor plants.


Wednesday is support day


Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Triangles - I hate doing this to you


Resistance above.

Listen up Obamaphiles - just do it

Does anyone anywhere on the planet think that overthrowing Assad by US supported troops the US calls rebels, is anymore legal or moral than just having the US just go in and killing him?

Listen Obamaphiles, just do it.  Send the air power and troops or what ever you need to do and go kill him.

Your way created ISIS.  Your way created 300,000 dead in Syria. Your way created 10 million people displaced with 5 million on the move.

Iran didn't sign the deal - you got to be kidding

What a bizarre time we live in.  Obama and his flunky Kerry must be on psychotropic medicine. What else can explain submitting an unsigned deal to congress.


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani discouraged his nation’s parliament from voting on the nuclear deal in order to avoid placing legal burdens on the regime. “If the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is sent to [and passed by] parliament, it will create an obligation for the government. It will mean the president, who has not signed it so far, will have to sign it,” Rouhani said in August. “Why should we place an unnecessary legal restriction on the Iranian people?” 

Pompeo cited that comment in his letter to Kerry, but Frifield did not explicitly address it in her reply. “This is not a mere formality,” Pompeo wrote in his September 19 letter. “Those signatures represent the commitment of the signatory and the country on whose behalf he or she is signing.

So somebody signed it.  It is like the accounting manager signing for a billion dollar line of credit instead of the CEO.

The Republican Senators who went out of their way to ensure Obama got his way on this deal need to be recalled.

Why even vote for the Republican Party?  One reason only.  To prevent Obama's third term.  A Republican House and Senate will prevent any Republican president, other than a liberal, from succeeding.

I don't care about Laquan McDonald

Do I think it was ok he was shot 16 times?  No, that sounds bizarre. Maybe he shouldn't have been shot once.

But I don't care about Laquan McDonald.  He was a black teenager with a knife on PCP, pounded on a police car and stabbed a police car tire with his knife.

It is too late for him.  His parents failed him.  The black community he lives in failed him.  It isn't up to the police to protect him, it is their job to protect others from him.

Did the white population of this country fail him?  After trillions of dollars spent on government programs?  I don't know what to do about the "most vulnerable" segment of our population.  Do you?

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

I want top create division between Muslims in the US and us.

http://sfg.ly/1PMKkvG

I WANT to create that division.  Her way tell our Crazy Muslims that they can bitch about anything and get their way.

Actually it is all a hoax.  Hillary supplied the initial weapons to ISIS.  that is what Benghazi was all about.

The US continued to supply weapons with John McCain for cover and did so through Saudi and Turkey channels.

The thing about proxy wars

The thing about proxy wars is that you can never attack the real enemy behind the proxy.  Those that buy oil from ISIS are free to do so.  Those who fund ISIS are free to do so.


Of course I am talking about Russia & Iran not being able to attack Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or the US.  It just isn’t proper.  And dangerous.

The United Nations is ok with proxy wars.  But if any of the real enemies attacked another real enemy the UN would go full condemnation mode.

Turkey will get away with shooting down a Russian fighter jet because they have an excuse that it was over Turkish territory.  But it does provide another example that Turkey is on the side of ISIS no matter what they say publicly.

I never imagined my life ever seeing anything as sick as what is going on in the Middle East.  Many people are saying the US is fully responsible or mostly they say a partner in all this.  It amazes me that they don't mention our President Hussein and Hillary Clinton that much.  They just say the US.  If it was Bush they would be saying his name in vain all day long.

USD - could be interesting

A breakout above the previous high could prove interesting.


Monday, November 23, 2015

Keynesians are Monetarist too.

Aggregate demand is nothing more than velocity of money.  The more demand the more the existing stock of money turns over.

Monetarists think that the amount of money is the problem and the solution.  Keynesians are monetarist too but sound like they know what they are talking about because they use the term demand endlessly.  They define the problem and the solution as itself and it is called demand.


Keynesians want to increase demand via deficit spending.  Which increases spending which increases demand.  And then banks lend more money because of the increase in demand and that increase the money supply.  So Keynesians end up where monetarists go directly.

Bonds have triangles too?


Economic gospel - narrow money

Here is narrow money - M1


It is interesting to see that it flat lines a long time before a recession.  I don't know enough to know why.  Perhaps it is because deposits move out of checking into savings.  Presently, there is no flat lining apparent.  I think I will track this.

Here is the M1 multiplier.  It is a ratio of the amount of base money, money created by the Fed, that actually turns into money.


I don't see anything to predict a recession.  It is interesting that overtime as Fed base money was increased the multiplier decreased.  Since the great recession, it is obvious that the Fed money creation was massive and the multiplier responded as before by going down.

This is another example of the failure of QE to do what it was hoped to do.  More money surely increased liquidity for the banks.  For main street not as much as hoped.

The increase in Fed base money was so great even with a reduced multiplier a lot of base money became money.  That is, it went from being an accounting entry to actually getting into deposit accounts.  How far can this go?  The velocity of money is negative and so it the M1 multiplier.  How much money can they print and how low can velocity and the M1 multiplier go negative.

Can't somebody do something?

Ok.  If the Fed didn't do this maybe we would have seen a drop in the money supply which surely would have been a bad event.  It is obvious however that the efficiency of creating more money by "printing"  has reduced a lot.

Economic gospel

Does anyone not think that the economy is all about expanding credit and money supply?

It appears to me that bank loans & leases is only coincident with the onset of recessions, not causative.

Year over year shows a lack of correlation.  Leading up to the 2000 recession growth hit or topped 10% four times.  Going into the 2008 recession there was a long period of steady growth.  Suddenly it all goes south.



Here is a picture of shadow banks.  I just don't see that credit dries up before a recession.  It seems to happen during a recession.  (The shadow banking industry is was down since the recession.  Regulation has a lot to do with that.  Probably also because giant finance companies like Goldman Sacks are now banks, thought non-deposit banks)


Now what about money supply:  here is broad money
Here is broadest money:

I just don't see a slow down in money supply preceding recessions.

"Agressive" rally and saving face


On Bloomberg radio this past weekend they quoted a Wall Street analyst saying the stock market will rally “aggressively” as investors realize that the Fed will only raise rates modestly.
I don’t know what aggressive is but as the close of the S&P was 2089 when he spoke it is only 2.2% to the all time high.  That isn’t what I would call aggressive.  He obviously means the S&P goes to new highs after that.
The Fed only has to raise rates enough to save face.

Sunday, November 22, 2015

If you were asked what would you do about terrorism,

what you say.

I would say start by impeaching President Hussein.

What?  There are 700,000 people on the FBI's terror watch list?

"New York Republican Rep. Peter King seeks to close the so-called terrorist loophole, which doesn’t require the watch list be referenced against federal background checks. The terrorist watch list reportedly contains the names of about 700,00 with suspected terrorist ties – more than 2,000 of those individuals have legally purchased guns over the past decade."

Oh well.  Just another issue that crops up when we are fundamentally changing America.

Why don't they use car bombs in the US?

When I worked at a Nike-Hercules missile defense site I learned the reason for the site was to cut off Russia from being able to use bombers on the US mainland.  Of course once bombers were obsolete the world had to go to ballistic missiles.

Open carry of rifles by civilian militia is a good idea.  I would feel safer in a restaurant with several rifles propped up against tables.  But knowing this Crazy Muslims would have to resort to something else.

I think it has to be car bombs.  How do you protect against them?  Israel never did.  They build a wall to keep Crazy Muslims out.  That succeeded.

But President Hussein and President Clinton will continue with the mass importation of Crazy Muslims. So how do you defend against car bombs?

Any ideas?

Friday, November 20, 2015

I don't care if there are zero poison M&Ms

this from Twitter somewhere




I don't care I don't want any refugees coming in.  This is Obama's and Clinton's mess and a problem of the war party, the Democrat Party.  I just don't want them and there is zero reason I should.  Let liberals pay for their keep out of their own pocket where the refugees are currently residing.

Also, if they do let them in, liberals should have to register to put up their house as collateral in the case that any do conduct or support terrorism.

Saying two things

Economic thought masters are destructive to society.

This is true:  An elderly woman in rural Montana feed local black bears.  One day they broke into her house and eat her.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Stock market off to the stars - no need for triangles

I can stop with the triangles again.

Fed FOMC minutes of Oct 28 meeting

I read the conclusion.  I didn't see any new information what so ever.

Growing up in magical times

We grew up in the magical times of the great expansion, the great moderation, since 1980.  It was accomplished by never ending interest rate reductions.

If you had a $100 loan at 8% costing you $8 in interest, you could have a $200 loan at 4% costing you $8 in interest.  Then you borrowed $400 at 2% and it still only cost you $8 in interest expense.  Then you borrowed $800 at 1% and it still only cost $8.


Now what?

I swear to god I heard this

I was driving to a doctor appointment late afternoon yesterday, Tuesday, listening to the radio when the news came on reporting about the Hanover bomb scare canceling a German soccer match.  The news was ABC and I am pretty sure they were quoting AP.  The radio reporter said the German Interior Minister who called for the evacuation of the soccer stadium was asked why he wouldn’t give more details about the threat.  He said, according the ABC News quoting AP, that the details would be too unsettling to the German people.


I swear on my mother’s grave I heard this and I am relaying it accurately.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Failed to break resistance


If you supported Obamacare you are

a dirty filthy bastard.


Then again, if you supported all the monopolistic protections of the medical care industry cartel even before Obamacare you are a stupid moron.

Oh.  I forgot.  We need inflation.  Forget it.  My mistake.

The big picture

The Fed wants to raise rates badly and they do.
The economy slows down.
The Fed goes to negative interest rates.
Stocks, bonds, real estate prices go up.


Time frame?  The stock market does what in the mean time?

Exquisite cartoon about climate fraud

Spend a moment looking at this cartoon.  It is exquisite.  Notice the different size buttons and dials.  I love the scientist on the right peering around the corning with his hands behind his back looking at the sun levers.  This represents the fact that climate models left out the sun completely or set it as having zero effect.  Most recently there has been a lot of criticism for this.  In fact, the other month, a presentation at the Royal Astronomy Academe showed the discovery of two layers of magnetic waves that fluctuate on the sun.  It accounts for the regular period of about 11 years of cooler and hotter sun.  They are predicting a grand cooling to start in 2030.  A mini ice age. Finally, so call climate scientists are starting to look into the effects of the sun.

The guy on the left is so surprised at finding the gigantic dial, the oceans.  Just recently thunderstorms over the oceans were shown to cool the earth via evaporation.  Yes, the oceans play a major part in temperatures.

Of course the best part is the group contemplating the tiny CO2 button.  And no one is looking at the water vapor dial which is the biggest greenhouse gas there is.  That is choice.  The author is to be congratulated.

Did you know that geologists turned to cosmologists when they discovered that there have been many mass extinctions on earth, not just the few big ones talked about.  These lesser but many extinctions occurred at regular intervals.  The cosmologists discovered so far that the onset of the last two ice ages coincided with earth entering the Orion spiral arm of the galaxy.


And they say the science is settled.


Monday, November 16, 2015

Short term momentum up

Today's action was strong enough to turn short term momentum indicators up.




Reminding you of your pledge

That I don't know what I am talking about.

  • "The ignorance of even the best-informed investor about the more remote future is much greater than his knowledge, and he cannot but be influenced to a degree which would seem wildly disproportionate to anyone who really knew the future, and be forced to seek a clue mainly here to trends further ahead. But if this is true of the best-informed, the vast majority of those who are concerned with the buying and selling of securities know almost nothing whatever about what they are doing. They do not possess even the rudiments of what is required for a valid judgement, and are the prey of hopes and fears easily aroused by transient events and as easily dispelled. -.John Keynes, 1930 

Getting ready for Christmas shopping

Retailers must be getting ready early for a robust Christmas shopping season:  This is for September


Revenue is expected to turn up due to a robust Christmas shopping season:


The Market is expecting the main retail ETF to bounce upward off the green slope line:


Brussels and Washington DC

Brussels Belgium is the Washington DC of Europe.  It is the center of Islamic Terrorism in Europe and is the power center that requires open boarders in Europe.  Just like Washington DC.

Not that Belgium based ISIS will attack all European countries. They attack France because France has resisted Islamization of France.  They have always been very proud of and defensive of their culture.  Germany and Sweden will not be attacked because the welcome the take over of their countries by Muslims.

Cartoon ISIS is contained


I love Intuit's charts

I love the Intuit charts for revenue and employment.  It is of small businesses.  20 or less employees I think.  It comes directly from their software without adjustments the government uses to affect the public’s perception.


For revenue the peak is June 2015.  The blue vertical line is approximately there.


The employment chart gray line on the top is the national employment figure from the BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The lower blue line is Intuit small business.  It peaked in June and has flat lined.

I keep reading that small businesses provide 50% of all jobs.  If so, these charts are important.

And I thought I was pessimistic

I reviewed the chartist this weekend.  As usual it exhausted me.  They have so many indicators and signals and Fibonacci lines and they change their time frames to make the data fit.  But the good news is that they see very very major support at S&P 1700.  What?  Wait!

1700? Yes, based on monthly chart moving averages and Fibonacci levels.

And I thought I was pessimistic.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

2nd Amendment and assault rifles

If 20 gals on the concert floor had this 25 round capacity 22 long rifle caliber rife with one spare magazine there could have been a withering fire of 1000 rounds at the Muslim scum shooting from the balcony.




Gun abolitionists used to argue that the 2nd Amendment referred to civilian militias and the National Guard is that now and people should not have guns, until the Supreme Court ruled that people may have guns.  Now Hillary Clinton wants an assault weapons ban.

If the 2nd Amendment is about anything it is about civilian militias being allowed to have assault rifles.


This pictured assault rifle is less than a yard long and can easily be carried on a gal’s back.  It is only 5 pounds.  It is made by Smith and Wesson and is point blank accurate to 150 yards.  There is virtually zero recoil.

Quote Karl Denniger

You done yet?

This is going to be very politically incorrect.  If you don't like it, stop reading now.





Ok, you were fairly warned.

This nation, and the world, has suffered under a severe instance of rectal-cranial inversion for decades.  Muslim terrorism is nothing new.  It dates to the days of the Crusades and even earlier.  It pre-dates America, by quite a lot in fact.

This does not mean that every Muslim is a terrorist, just like from the British point of view not every American was an insurrectionist.  But we did commit insurrection as a body politic and today, and through history, Muslims have pressed their socio-political views through war, terrorism and other means of force.

Don't kid yourself about piety; men have through the ages wrapped themselves in the robes of religion in the name of this or that to shield themselves from the just consequences of their acts of depravity.  The lack of understanding of science has been a salve for those who wish to press such positions throughout history; witness the persecution of Galileo for just one of many examples of thousands.  And if you think Christians are above this all today, we're not.  We just grew up a bit more and most of the time in the modern day the crazies among us get the boot (or the prison cell) before they go off the rails and start burning people they claim are witches.

The so-called "refugees" coming out of Syria (and elsewhere) are not refugees.  The demographic of refugees tilts heavily toward women, children and the elderly.  Why?  Because real men fight, that's why -- and when your nation is under assault if you're a real man you fight, because that's what a man does.  Call that sexist or whatever if you wish, but it's reality; it's our job as men to do the dirty work when it needs to be done.  This isn't about blood lust or any such thing; it's about how we were made and who we are as that particular half of the human species.

So tell me, my friends, why the so-called "refugees" have an inverted demographic?  Why they are majority fighting-age men?  It takes only a minute of reflection to realize that they are not refugees at all; they are in fact the army going out to wage war while the women and children, along with the infirm, stay behind!

In other words they're doing what men do, and our stupidity in both this country and Europe have literally invited an invading army in and worse, we've coddled them and showered them with welfare handouts of various sorts.

Are we all nuts?  This is what happens when you let people like Rachel Maddow run the political and social discourse around the world.

You bleed from the eyes but it's not because you're compassionate; it's because the invading army you invited in by listening to people like her just stabbed you in the face, intending to drink your blood and have fried brains for lunch -- yours, to be specific.

French better not water-board the captive

let alone castrate him

cut his balls off and mailed them

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Perpetual war as a policy

In Vietnam we fought a war of attrition.  Then General Powell having learned that was absurd conducted an amazing war against Saddam Hussein for the Senior Bush president.  Now, the Hillary/Obama foreign policy has taken the concept of war of attrition to a whole new level.  We now have perpetual war as a policy.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Ha! Tom Ridge blamed the attacks on the French

First he said it was unfortunate that we jump to conclusions that this sort of thing is a terrorist attack. Then he said the French were at fault for not assimilating Muslims.  Then he said but he wasn't drawing any conclusion as to who was doing the attack.

I guess that makes him an establishment Republican.

More jobs created than population growth but wages are slow growing

Looking at covered employment, which is jobs covered by unemployment insurance and is reported by states, and isn't adjusted for political purposes to support Democrats at election time:

12/31/14   132,731,174 jobs
10/31/15   135,574,808 jobs
                     2,848,629 more jobs in 10 months

This is the estimated total population from the census bureau:

12/31/14   320,201,000 people
10/31/15   322,348,000 people
                     2,147,000 more people in 10 months

In 10 months there are 701,629 more jobs than people
for and average of 70,163 more jobs than population growth per month

This chart is the wage growth percentage year over year for production and non-supervisory people in the private sector.


Productivity Paradox

I hate to be so negative.

Productivity has always displaced workers.  That is the point of it. But the productivity increased economic activity and displaced workers found new jobs.

Suppose the type of productivity we have now, information technology, displaces workers but doesn’t increase productivity very much.  And the economy therefore doesn’t provided for replacement work and when it does it is not at the same level of pay.

Reduced demand then reduces sales and then companies reduce spending on innovation.

US AVERAGE REAL INCOME

S&P SALES GROWTH

US RETAIL SALES GROWTH





Looks like Thursday and Friday August 20 and 21 but not as extreme


I wonder what Monday brings.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Europeans get what they deserve

Europeans loved Obama.  Still do.  And for the same reasons he is loved in the US.  He is fundamentally changing the US away from a dominate white Christian country.  To a …

Triangle

You already got out so you don't care.  Or, you are confident that the market will get back to its all time high.  It looked like it was going to do that.  It almost did.


Quits. Openings / Hires Spread. I am adding this to the early warning charts


{click charts to enlarge}


Opps. I missed this divergence.


Put this in your pipe and smoke it. An extreme scenario.

Interpretation of Peter Knight, an individual investor on Seeking Alpha

The Fed wants to normalize rates in the belief that doing so will spur economic growth.  This is their primary objective.  Second to none.  They will be able to raise rates because the average duration of Treasury debt is 10 years and will not increase the interest burden of the government on the existing 18 trillion dollars over the next 10 years.

Higher rates will induce a selloff of existing Treasuries owned by foreigners as they face declining prices.  Higher rates will make it easier for the Treasury to sell new bonds.  Net, there will not be enough demand for new Treasuries to offset the selloff of existing Treasuries.

Therefore QE will have to be reestablished.  QE will allow the Treasury to issue the new bonds they need and at a lower interest rate than the market will demand in the face of foreigners unloading.
Most importantly, inflation will engage.  QE is the way to monetize new debt and inflation is the way to monetize existing debt.  As prices for goods and services go up along with incomes, tax receipts go up.  Inflation will have to be high enough to create enough tax receipts to significantly reduce the burden of debt service.  And then there is the phenomenon of repaying debt with cheaper dollars.

This all comes about because of the failure of fiscal stimulus.  Debt exploded but didn’t cause economic growth to increase tax receipts enough to prevent interest expense from being too great a burden.  

Me: I remember talking with friends at Starbucks when the fiscal deficit first exploded.  We all agreed it was a race between getting the economy to improve before the damage of too much debt occurred.  The economy lost the race.

The dollar going up with interest rates will trash our exporters and smash the earnings of our multinationals.  China’s devaluation of their yuan may have been the cause of our stock market correction starting August 20.  The Fed isn’t going to let a strong dollar do this for long.


They will raise rates then QE will lower them and the dollar.  Inflation and devaluation.  That is our future.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Quote from The Inflation Trader

We are entering a period with weakening growth and strengthening inflation.
This should be "fun."

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Oh no. Not those damn triangles again.


Another main economic theory

Slowing growth solves growing inflation.

The Fed is supposed to have equal concerns for stable prices and full employment.  But really, they have decided they are the masters of the universe and focus on growth.  I am starting to think they can't affect growth much if at all.  They certainly can affect inflation.

Growth and Inflation are mixed up.  It is believed inflation is growth.  So the Fed tries to increase inflation to get growth.  Then when wages go up too much they try reduce wage growth by decreasing inflation.

Can it get worse than this? Gold and Natural Gas


A bounce to 15 is 50%


A bounce o 115 is 11%


Nasdaq advance decline divergent but not NYSE



Monday, November 9, 2015

What the hell? Labor market conditions index?

That is a strong showing?

The stock market declined on this?  So I guess bad news is bad news and the market really does want a rate hike.

The other main economic theory

Just about all economics comes down to two theories.  One from the last post:

The theory economists operate with is that good wages increases and high employment creates inflation over 2% so rates must be increased so slow down the improvement in labor conditions.

The other is that saving is bad and spending is good.

Market disliked Labor Market Conditions Index

The Fed comes out with this index the Monday after the payroll report.  The good news jobs report Friday wasn't liked all that much.  Today, there is not one other economic report nor have I seen a news report that would explain the immediate drop in stocks when the Labor Market Conditions Report came out.  With its revisions, it showed a strong labor market.  Janet Yellen watches this report closely.

The theory economists operate with is that good wages increases and high employment creates inflation over 2% so rates must be increased so slow down the improvement in labor conditions.

I guess, at least for now, the idea a a rate hike in December isn't so well liked.  But the day is young.  And you don't care because you already got out of the market.






Yes, employment is improving

Covered employment is salary and wage workers, both private and government, reported by states.  It is the number of workers where employers pay unemployment insurance on their compensation.  This excludes a lot of commission only sales people and your Mexican household servant.

This data does not get manipulated by the vile and evil federal government people producing economic reports.

For the first time since the great recession the number of these workers reported by states has grown over 2% from a year ago.



And total numbers have reached a new high:


Friday, November 6, 2015

Paraphrase

Obama will be remembered as the chaos and conflict president.



China's financial war

Suppose China timely and purposely devalued their currency to push up the dollar which it did and did it broadly over most other currencies.  The will have proved they can control the dollar as well as the Fed.

The revaluation of the dollar hurt China's raw material suppliers badly as they are committed to the dollar.  It think China, in an effort to be the hero, after they purposely trashed commodity prices by pushing up the dollar, will use their massive dollar holdings to start buying more raw materials.  Why not, the dollar is strong and the prices are weak.  Thanks to China.  They don't need the raw materials and will stock pile them.

Then when China's dollar holdings are reduced they wills start making deals with their raw material suppliers, Brazil, Australia and Canada and the rest to trade with them in yuan.

It is China's financial battle against our brute force military.

First we learned, second we learned

First we learned white people have to avoid groups of black people.  Now we learn everybody needs to avoid stabbing age Muslims.


Faisal Mohammad

As authorities worked to establish a motive for the 18-year-old college freshman who stabbed four people on a California campus Wednesday, more disturbing details emerged about the attacker.

Faisal Mohammad, who was killed by University of California Merced police, was described by at least one witness as smiling as he slashed at victims, called a loner by a fellow dorm resident and drew praise Thursday from a Twitter account associated with ISIS, which just last week released a series of videos calling for lone wolf stabbing attacks.

"May Allah accept him," read a tweet in Arabic from a Twitter account that terrorism experts say has carried previous ISIS propaganda, just minutes after Mohammad’s name was divulged by campus authorities

Gaza mens store



Headline: stupid Western culture


Thursday, November 5, 2015

I am absolutely shocked - Trans Pacific Partnership

The only mainland country to sign up is Vietnam.  To me this means China "owns" the rest.

2014 deficit - just so you know

Fiscal 2014 from the US Treasury:

                                    Debt Held by the Public        Intra-government Debt                 Total


After the government spend 277 billion of social security money on everything other than social security, they borrowed another 808.7 billion dollars to cover their short fall of tax revenue.

So debt goes up 1 trillion dollars on a 483 billion dollar deficit.

This country is 70% schmucks.

Accountants are such a pain in the ass

Here is page 51 of the US Treasury annual statement for 2014.  It is the summary of footnote 24.  It is ONLY for social security, medicare, and the small amounts for railroad retirement and black lung disease.

{click to enlarge}


Take 2014's liability of 41.9 trillion dollars and subtract 2013's liability level of 39.7 trillion dollars and that gets an increase in liabilities of 2.2 trillion dollars in 2014..  This doesn't show up on the income statement as it is a cash basis statement.  So this is the footnote disclosing it.  This allows politicians to fool the schmucks. They should add this 2.2 trillion dollars to the deficit of $483 billion (though it actually is $618 billion) to get a 2014 federal deficit of 2.68 trillion dollars.

If you include the budget function (budget functions are groups of expenditures) of income security along with the budget function of social insurance above, the Federal Government incurred 5 trillion dollars that isn't shown on the actual income statement.

What the net present value of $41.9 trillion dollars means:  It is the amount that the US should have in the bank as cash, along with compound interest, in order to be able to fund social security and medicare for the next 75 years.  This estimate of $41.9 trillion includes revenue and expenditures for everyone alive and to be born who become eligible for the benefits over the next 75 years.

When you include income security, the amount that should be in the bank today is 87 trillion dollars.

Ah.  Who wants to hear that the actual budget deficit was $5.4 trillion last year.  They are just a bunch of dumb accountants.  We can reduce income security someday and borrow the rest.  As the world's reserve currency we can borrow as much as we need and keep interest rates low.  Right?

Quote - Jeffery Folks

Try as they might, liberals will never be able to make a

virtue out of refusing to believe in anything beyond social-

justice mysticism and cult-like global-warming incantations.

Quote - Me

Me: Socialism begets nihilism.

       

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Emails forever - my loyalty score

I just finished a reorganization of my computers.  When I reloaded my email client it downloaded ten thousand email messages.  All but a few of which I had deleted.  So Microsoft is keeping my emails forever.  So must the rest of the email providers. 
I couldn’t access any of these emails as they were “deleted”.  I had to wait a couple of hours for all of them to download none the less.

It shows how stupid, really arrogant, Hillary Clinton is.  Her emails are not deleted, not one of the 33,000 she deleted.  Not that it matters as she is a liberal and a democrat.  But me, they will some day include my email history when they give me my “loyalty” score.

Fed speakers except Yellen are nothing

Now I am thinking none of the 11 Fed speakers this week has any meaning except Yellen.  Today she was hawkish.  Except if the economy fell apart before she got rates high enough to lower them again, then she would consider negative rates.


I think the stock market is confused.  For now.

What do you call the fear of being called phobic?

I don't have that fear.  I fully admit I am Islam phobic.


Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Syria Obama


Fed message starts tomorrow

The first six of 11 Fed speakers start tomorrow.  I think they are going to tell us the economy is strong and that a rate increase will be announced in December.

http://niceconstable.blogspot.com/2015/11/13-fed-speakers-this-week-actually-over.html

How do you think the market will react?  The neo-Keynesian model says that raising rates is deflationary.  But increased confidence may offset such negatives and the stock market may rally.

EEM lead down in August

Of course, it doesn't mean it is going to happen again that way.  But what do you care anyway since you already sold out your tax privileged accounts and are sitting on cash so you can sleep better. But now what do you do about your taxable accounts?  If you sell now so close to 2016 you incur big capital gains.  If only the market will stay high for the rest of 2015.  Right?

S&P 500 2100 must hold.


SPY volume sucks

Note that the rally that followed the August panic low declined and rose some again when testing the low.  Subsequently the volume decline as we experienced a fabulous rally.  Maybe it doesn't suck but don't you think with a rally like that the volume should be higher?  My experience is that big rallies and declines can start on low volume.  That is, volume does not give you a cue. But the volume picks up as the rally or decline progresses.  It just didn't do it here.



Bill Clinton's biggest crime

Bill Clinton had nothing to do with the fall of the Soviet Union.  But it was up to him to help form the resulting society into a free nation.  I remember a girl child spokes person in the very begging of his first year saying, "We don't care about Russia.  They are a paper tiger now".

She meant they didn't have to deal with Russia as  the cold war threat and could ignore it and go about fundamentally transforming the US into...

China was let into the WTO by Bill Clinton and he was responsible for giving them a one sided advantage against us.  It was thought that China would become "liberalized" by getting them to interacting with the world.

But both countries have used their economic gains to reinforce their authoritarian infrastructure and today not only are as repressive within as they ever have been, they are using their economic strength to force their authoritarian ways on the world.

Quote: Diversity

Diversity is a hunger that is never sated.  You must give up your traditions, even sacred ones, and even give up decency.

Me: only the native population must be diverse.  The invaders get to keep their traditions.