Saturday, January 30, 2016

Ok. So you need proof that Europe is toast

The European Union, the central government of Europe, held a meeting recently and here are the minutes.  I have a link to the minutes.  I am not going to post more this one example.  You can believe me or read it yourself.


Here is the reason for this post:  they are like the US Federal Government.  Come one come all.  Murder and rape?  Not problem because after all Americans murder and rape too.  We are Liberal.




They recognize that only 40% of the migrants are refugees fleeing war.  But as you read the minutes you realize they are ALL talk and no action.  They will do nothing about it.  Wait and see.

Poland has stood up to these EU freaks over immigration and the freaks don’t like it one bit.

These EU freaks sound just like UN freaks.

Ha Ha.  Turkey fucked over these freaks.

Ha Ha.  Africa is following Turkey’s example.  Turkey and Africa take action and are sending "refugees" to the welcoming arms of Europe.  EU talks.  And talks, and talks.


Friday, January 29, 2016

Now isn't that sweet

The S&P closed above the previous battle line.



Really, I was one of the first to mention Europe was toast.

It is amazing to see European men pacified by socialism, feminized actually.

And the leaders who achieved this pacification now are doing the equivalent of putting coyotes in a sheep pen.

I just read that the Koran says Muslim men may rape women if they are women acquired through conquest.  Not sure if it is in the Koran or not but it is true that Muslim men believe it to be there.

It is also true that Europeans minimize these sexual assaults.  Have you seen the government cartoons trying to teach Muslim men how to behave?  Like the one where a guy has his hand on a woman’s butt and there is the red slash over the picture?


Those cartoons are going up against the Koran.  Same outcome has coyotes and sheep together in a pen.  What a sad and pathetic joke Europeans are.

Rally from Yen, not just GDP

The carry trade lead the S&P futures up then the GDP report lead the carry trade up.  When you long stocks you are thankful for whatever gives you a boost.






GOP debate

The squabbling between Cruz and Rubio over the topic of immigration regarding past statements and positions was unseemly.  And the Fox panel intended for that to happen.  Most of the viewers had no idea what they were talking about but got the intended idea that they argued over who was more conservative and who was a phony on immigration.  Christie looked good pointing that out.

This was unseemly and stupid.  It makes me think Trump won the immigration portion of the debate last night and didn't have to say a word.

GDP - first estimate - thank heavens for Obamacare

Scanning the GDP report looking for the biggest positive contributors to the GDP figure of .7% are:

.43%   health care
.24%   recreational goods & vehicles
.27%   fixed investment, residential
.18%   food services & accommodations
.18%   recreation services
.14%   national defense

And thank you consumers for buying houses and eating, drinking, and recreating.

GDP - first estimate of 4th quarter 2015

Headline number .7% will not do.  It will have to be revised upward.

But who cares?  The stock market apparently.  And it was liked. Because no more rate hikes?

Here is a better picture of the first estimate.

This is simply taking GDP and eliminating inventories changes.  As you can see it shows the slow down but it sure is a lot better than the stupid headline number of .7% which not only includes inventory but is compared to the previous quarter.  Year over year is the best way to look at GDP.



I think the chart below is the most important chart.  It also eliminates inventory changes and it also in addition eliminates exports which we know have been slowing down to a slowing global economy.

There were three quarters of 3% real growth until Q3'15 and now the growth has slowed to 2.5%.  This is still really good growth considering. No, it isn't the whole economy but it is the domestic economy buying and selling to the domestic economy.



The problem with slowdowns is that things have to slow down before they slow down some more.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Quote - an internet comment regarding Europe

The only war will be between Muslim factions as they stake out their turf in European Countries. It will take a few years, but eventually they'll control all the compliant Countries.
The trade in white infidel women should be fairly brisk.

See? Men hate Hillary Clinton

Whee! Still within the little triangle

I hope it breaks out upward tomorrow.

Surveillance state - AT&T address book sync

I am barraged by AT&T to sync my cell phone contracts to the AT&T cloud.  I wouldn’t want to lose my address book would I?

AT&T will track who you call by name and address and sell that information.  And who calls you and how often.  Also emailing and texting.  The content of your texts is already examined by computer.  It is analyzed your profile, age, politics, searches, then summarized and sold.

The government, including the CIA, is one of those buyers.  They can, when they want to investigate you, use their computers to create a graphic of your network of business associates, friends, and family, so they can determine who they should investigate next.  Any conclusion they have goes right into the data base.


It is a good thing that we can trust our government.  I mean, Obama or Clinton would never abuse this power.  I mean they really respect our freedom.  Or is that they respect the freedom of the government?

Surveillance state - voter targeting

"But as presidential campaigns push into a new frontier of voter targeting, scouring social media accounts, online browsing habits and retail purchasing records of millions of Americans, they have brought a privacy imposition unprecedented in politics."

Me: I remember when I thought I was anonymous online.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-political-campaign-data-privacy-20160127-story.html

Clinton indictment

Hillary Clinton has approved of Obama's policies.  She is running on his record.  It is part of the deal that she not be indicted.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

IMF and World Bank move to forestall oil-led defaults

What?  The American oil consumer has to support these countries?  And I thought oil was bad.  Why would you support oil producers producing an environmentally bad product?

Well, I guess the IMF and the World Bank want to join the Fed as masters of the universe.  Like Superman, Batman, Green Arrow, and the Flash, they are here to save everybody.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9759f42a-c51b-11e5-b3b1-7b2481276e45.html#axzz3yVhytDTj

If oil exports are 95% of your GDP then maybe you are doing something wrong.

Let me tell you about Azerbaijan.  It is a Muslim country that forced out its Jewish population a decade ago.  They took ALL the possessions and the money from Jews, leaving them with $100 in USD and air fare to the U.S.  U.S. Jewish organizations received these people, situated them and set them up.  I knew the daughter of a cab driver who was a professor there until they got kicked out.  He was a bitter man.

Trump is the only GOP candidate that would stick his neck out and advocate against importing these Muslim freaks.  Don't get me wrong.  I am no fan of Trump.  Jeb Bush and others want to import more of them it should be known.  The Democrat Party wants to import more of them, many many more.  The Republican Party establishment wants to import more of them, many many more.

Burn the whole place down



{click for a better view of corruption}

Quote from the web

Trump just fired the air traffic controllers of the Republican Party.

Fed days

Fed days are often volatile.  But the S&P 500 ended above the lower support line of the little triangle.

Stupid party

Trump enemies attack him as being a phony Christian.  Cruz enemies attack him as being a phony Christian.

Who is listening?  Jewish men.  They hate Hillary Clinton because she hates men and they were a big reason she lost to Barack Obama.  This demographic carefully and generously donate.

Time and time again I have seen Jewish voters and money turn against a Republican candidate when he appeared too Christian and against any abortions even as they viewed the Democrat as too liberal.


People in general are tired of evangelical, abortion, liberty, freedom, and constitution talk.  They want action now on jobs.  They want the Muslim problem to be a problem for Muslims.  They want the political correctness to stop.  They want political corruption to stop.  The want Obama stopped. They want immigration stopped. They want the US to be respected in the world.  How can you be respected when you don't respect your country by having open immigration.  Does anyone respect Europe for importing massive numbers of Muslims?  For trading Jewish people for Muslims?

Oil price and the S&P 500

There have been periods when the S&P futures have been exactly the same percentage up and down as oil.  BC says it must the computers programmed to buy and sell the S&P based on moves in oil.  Myself, I have never read a cogent article on why oil and stocks should be correlated so this is the best explanation.

Oil is the candlesticks.

USD vs Euro and Yen

There are quite a few stock market websites that scream the sky is falling when the Euro gets stronger to the dollar by a couple of ticks.  And they scream the sky is falling when the Euro gets weaker than the dollar by a couple of ticks.

You can thank the Yen carry trade for our recent gains.  And our woes.  Actually, sometimes the carry trade leads the stock market. This happens when Japan pushes down the value of the Yen. Other times the stock market causes carry traders on the margin to unwind.  The candle sticks are USD/JPY and the black line is the S&P 500.

Actual new home sales in the thousands

2012-07-01    33
2012-08-01    31
2012-09-01    30
2012-10-01    29
2012-11-01    28
2012-12-01    28
2013-01-01    32
2013-02-01    36
2013-03-01    41
2013-04-01    43
2013-05-01    40
2013-06-01    43
2013-07-01    33
2013-08-01    31
2013-09-01    31
2013-10-01    36
2013-11-01    32
2013-12-01    31
2014-01-01    33
2014-02-01    35
2014-03-01    39
2014-04-01    39
2014-05-01    43
2014-06-01    38
2014-07-01    35
2014-08-01    36
2014-09-01    37
2014-10-01    38
2014-11-01    31
2014-12-01    35
2015-01-01    39
2015-02-01    45
2015-03-01    46
2015-04-01    48
2015-05-01    47
2015-06-01    44
2015-07-01    43
2015-08-01    41
2015-09-01    35
2015-10-01    39
2015-11-01    34
2015-12-01    38

Seasonally adjusted new home sales reached a 10 month high. You decide.

Here is what non-seasonally adjusted new home sales looks like on a close up chart.  The rising trend has not been broken.



For the live of triangles

Support and resistance

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Shadow banks are key

Shadow banks are just non-banks.  They include insurance companies, brokers and dealers, pension plans, money market funds, and finance companies.

The banks are not intermediaries for savers.  This is a myth.  Banks do not lend out depositor money.  But non-banks are intermediaries.  When you buy a whole life insurance policy you are putting your savings to work financing construction projects.  When you lend your money to CIT, you are financing accounts receivables of some corporation.

The money in banks just sits there doing nothing.  It is inert.  And there is about $10 trillion of money in banks not in checking accounts (where it is doing work).  Non-banks activate savings.

Since the great recession non-banks have become the bad guys and recipients of restrictive legislation and regulation.  And, low interest rates which is a sin, have reduced the economic activity of many non-banks.  Which reduces the velocity of money.


There are a lot of savers who, because of the sin of low interest rates, have reduced their spending which has reduced money velocity.  There would be seniors and others very happy to put some of their savings into non-banks and earn some interest income and in doing so not only put their savings to work but also spend some money they normally wouldn’t.

Stock market interest rate tantrum

If this is the extent of the interest rate tantrum exhibited by the stock market, then the Fed isn't going to worry about raising rates further.

Muslim immigrants have no fear in France

In all probability you saw this video but in case you didn't here it is. Were these Muslim immigrants from North Africa or just thugs from the US.  It is amazing to me to see the characteristic swagger of these men.  Even a gun doesn't intimidate them while French men and women run away in fear.  I doubt the guy with a gun was a cop.  He would arrest the guy with a baseball bat right?  Wrong. As a Muslim immigrant, they would simply release him.


https://youtu.be/lHX5jsomq_U




There are so many videos and reports I hope this doesn't 

add to the overload.


Monday, January 25, 2016

The Fed's dilemma

M*V = P * Q
Money stock x Velocity = Price x Quantity
Aggregate Monetary Purchasing Power = Aggregate Demand (or Output)

Inflation happens when money supply growth is faster than GDP growth.
Money supply growth has been rapid in recent times averaging about 6%.  GDP growth has been a lot less.  There hasn’t been strong inflation because Velocity of money has been declining which is offsetting the growth in the Money Supply.  Velocity declines when interest rates decline.  The Fed wants to normalize the economy by increasing interest rates in order to increase Velocity and also they want to reduce the growth of the money supply to prevent inflation by offsetting the increase in Velocity with a reduction in Money supply growth.  Just the reverse of what we have now.

But that is not what they are doing nor can they do it.  Yes, they can increase interest rates by increasing interest paid to banks on excess reserves.  But to decrease the growth of the money supply they need to decrease reserves.  They can’t because reserves are so large  such that when they reduced reserves enough to affect the growth of the money supply they will have removed so much liquidity in the system to cause a financial collapse and a depression.

There is another problem.  Goosing the economy is the end goal of Keynesian economics.  But the net of M*V doesn’t have that much of an effect on Q, contrary to Keynesian belief.  But it does have a big effect on P.

Where are we now inflation-wise.  Core CPI is at 2%.  Raising interest rates from here will increase velocity without the offsetting effect of a decline in the growth of  Money and will therefore increase P since Q is just not affected that much by M*V.

Q is affected by the productive utilization of savings.  That is a ‘nuther lesson.

Inflation is strong for the things we need and offset by low inflation on the things we don’t need.   Low oil prices are helping to reduce inflation on one of the things we need which is gasoline.

Conclusion:  The Fed will create inflationary pressures if they raise interest rates because doing so increases the velocity of money.  And the Fed is unable to reduce the growth of the money supply to offset the increase in velocity because reserves are so large.  And even if they could increase aggregate monetary purchasing power it doesn’t affect output very much but affects price a lot more.  So should the Fed increase interest rates in the face of a slowing economy with a pretty fast rate of money supply growth we can get stagflation.

I don’t ever predict interest rates.  I have no idea what the Fed will do now.  They last said they would likely raise rates four more time in 2016.  Many pundits predict they won’t in the face of a slowing economy.

Obama implies Hillary Clinton doesn't speak the truth and plays people

In an interview with Politico:  

“She is a good, smart, tough person who cares deeply about this country, and she has been in the public eye for a long time and in a culture in which new is always better. And, you know, you're always looking at the bright, shiny object that people don't, haven't seen before,” Obama said. “That's a disadvantage to her. Bernie is somebody who -- although I don't know as well because he wasn't, obviously, in my administration, has the virtue of saying exactly what he believes, and great authenticity, great passion, and is fearless. His attitude is, ‘I got nothing to lose.’”

Friday, January 22, 2016

All this snow crisis crap

I grew up in the middle of the area that is going to get "historic" snow fall this weekend.  Sorry.  I remember snow falls that came up to car windows and cars were higher then.  That level was straight across the street.  Us boys would shovel not only the side walks but the streets. (Self interest at work as the shoveled streets made for great sledding on the down hills.)  It was always a challenge where to put the shoveled snow.  We never charged old ladies to shovel their walkways to the side walk.  A brother who still lives there is looking forward to playing in the snow this weekend.  His place of work will be closed.  He hopes.  He is in his early 70s.

Momentum up

My long term momentum formula is up.  That doesn't mean the market won't go down first.  There is a lot of air space below the present price.  It just means the probabilities are in favor of the rally continuing or resuming after a decline in the near future.




The schisms

The schisms are caused by Obama.

I have questioned a few Bernie Sanders supporters.  They feel Obama sold out to the Republican evil corporate masters.  And Hillary is worse than him.  It is possible for some democrats to support Trump.  He doesn’t appear to be one of those evil Republicans.  They perceived the Democrat donors and establishment as being little different than the Republicans.

This isn’t so different when talking to Trump supporters of which I have questioned many.  They often said about the Republican donors and establishment that there was no difference between them and the Democrat party.

Trump doesn’t come across as partisan.  He champions the little guy.  So does Sanders. So does Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz.  But Bernie Sanders supports don’t believe Clinton.  Trump supports don’t think Ted Cruz can follow through.

Democrat Party schism

The Democrat Party has a schism too, just not so out in the open.  Democrats and Liberals have always been smartly taciturn.

Immigration is part of appeal of Bernie Sanders to his supporters.  Early on he made some very strong statements on how immigration hurt workers here in the country.

Democrat leaders and insiders avoid the topic because they want to be able to use it as an example of how mean Republicans are.  They also need the votes of immigrants.

Republican Party schism

The Republican Party schism is fully out in the open now.

What amazes me is the “establishment” continues to not address at all in any way what so ever the driving force of the schism – immigration.


Not one Republican leader or insider.  Silence.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

quote from somewhere - guns and delusional thinking

Jeb Bush ... said he favors laws that would prevent people with major mental health issues from purchasing firearms.

Would delusional thinking qualify?

So?

Former Sec Def Robert Gates: ‘Odds Are Pretty High’ Russia, China, And Iran Accessed Hillary’s Server [VIDEO]



'The Pentagon acknowledges that they get attacked about 100,000 times a day'

This is so creepy

Google Paid Apple $1 Billion to Keep Search Bar on IPhone


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/google-paid-apple-1-billion-to-keep-search-bar-on-iphonelink to Bloomber

Sighs of relief

The S&P closed above the down trend line and above the lows of August 24/25.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

The end of western civilization is nigh

This is not about Islam.  I recommend viewing it to the very end.  It isn't long.


 https://youtu.be/fmO-ziHU_D8

Paraphrasing Ace of Spades

There is no unifying principle that conservatives adhere to.  The left has its act together.  It is consistent in its goals.  Its reasons vary but its goals are unwavering.  The want to rob those outside their coalition of freedom and money and give it to those inside their coalition.  The rest of us gather together to defend ourselves and we unify under the banner of conservatism.

Sweet comback but it could have been better

For a short period of time about 12:30 PT the S&P was back above the August 24/25 lows.  Still, this almost qualifies as the market holding that level for three days in a row.

If the market can breakout above the down trend line I would say this swoon is finally over.

I don't believe big hedge funds start sells offs.  But they sure know how to take advantage of it by shorting which exacerbates the move down.  When the sellers are pretty much flushed out in their opinion they cover their shorts and go long again.  This turns the market up and brings in some of brave souls hoping the bottom was in.


all Ray Dalio's fault

This is all Ray Dalio's fault.  Talking about the end of the super debt cycle (at the end of the last video 4:45).

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/bridgewaters-dalio-feds-next-move-toward-qe-not-tightening.html

I regret anticipating a turn around.  I would be very happy making money on this extreme swoop.  My biggest weakness in swing trading is anticipation.


Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Monday, January 18, 2016

That fabulous December Jobs Report with 292,000 jobs gained in December 2015 from November 2015

TOTAL NON-FARM JOBS (included government and private sector) – Seasonally Adjusted
            Dec     143,242,000
            Nov    142,950,000
            GAIN          292,000 jobs

Now for the same report but NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
            Dec     144,191,000
            Nov    144,180,000
            GAIN                 11,000 JOBS

Are you fucking kidding me?  They go from an actual gain of 11,000 jobs to 292,000 jobs

                                                It gets worse

Usually works Full Time    gain of 504,000 jobs SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Usually works Full Time    gain of 116,000 jobs NOT-SEASONALLY ADJ'd

Usually works Part Time  gain of 27,000 jobs SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Usually works Part Time  loss of 181,000 jobs NOT SEASONALLY ADJ'd

That is correct.  I checked it three times.  I calculated it myself three times.  From a loss of 181,000 actual part time jobs in the Christmas Holiday month of December 2015 they get an increase in part time jobs of 27,000.


This is sick. And maybe December economic indicators are not going to be well either.

Alright already you don't believe me.  Here:



{click to enlarge}

I guess what happens is employers hire in November and layoff by December 31st.  And this year the layoffs were less than last year.  In fact last year December actual part time jobs were 254,429 less than November.  So I guess economically speaking December 2015 is an improvement from a year ago.  Thus the favorable seasonal adjustment.  So lets look at the percentage change year over year.

It sucks as growth is negative but it sure has improved over the last few months.

Exports as as Q3 2015




Do you think the stronger dollar had anything to do with the decline in the US foreign trade position?

GDPNow January 15, 2016

.6% predicted for the 4th Quarter.  The forecast always starts out high.  It becomes more accurate towards the end of the quarterly data as the model has more data.  So I am not expecting a good GDP report.  Even though Obama said everything was great and the December jobs report was outstandingly good.  Right?


Sunday, January 17, 2016

2 Year Swap Rate - January 8, 2016

While still low, the swap rate is going in the wrong direction (like most things).  This is a key indicator of financial conditions.  It is a predictor of financial liquidity health.


Yield curve January 14, 2016 still in safe territory

The previous most recent low was 1.21 points spread.  The one before was 1.28 points spread.  The spread is still in safe territory.  However, it appears to be at risk of declining.  Just my eyeballs.  You may not think so.










Sentiment Bonds - January 14, 2016

Corporate bond spreads has gone above its recent high.  Another not so good sign.




Junk bond spreads keep creeping up.

Quits, Openings, Hires, November 2015 - PRIVATE SECTOR

Quits are robust and is indicative of a strong job market and here we see them climbing.





But wait just one moment.  Quitting in the face of declining job openings?  Well, it hasn't declined but a tiny bit and is still in a nice up trend.




Opps.  What happened to hires?  It has flat-lined.

Initial Claims 01/09/16- one the of early warnings

Keeping an eye on this.  It looks like the bottom is in.

Business sales and inventories November 2015

The gap widened in November 2015.  It is actually rather ominous.  Layoffs become possible when this happens if companies don't think they are going to have the sales to keep inventories under control.





I am not going to take the time to confirm but I'd bet that auto inventories are a big part of the problem.

Inflation expectations crashed

While declining for a long time it took another pulse move down.  No doubt because of the Fed increasing interest rates.  Wait.  What?  Raising interest rates was supposed in increase inflation.  The Fed was unhappy that they couldn't get inflation to 2% (using their favorite indicator core PCE).

Consumer Spending Nov'15 and Retail Sales Dec '15

This is November 2015 Personal Consumption Expenditures.  It is year over year.  This is with inflation so I can only say it is weak.




October '15 Here is a close look with inflation taken out.  It is as expected really weak year over year.




It is interesting to see how consumer spending has declined since the onset of our magical times, the great expansion.




Below: Retail Sales for December 2015 without taking out inflation.  It has flat-lined.  This even though the jobs report was spectacularly good.




Below: Retail Sales for December 2015 without taking out inflation year over year are 1.6%.  What ever happened to the consumer?  No money?  Too tired from two jobs to shop?  Too much debt?  No prospect of pay increases?

Friday, January 15, 2016

It is all about sentiment, which is to say, it is all about what investors think other investors are thinking.

I think investors will think other investors will cause a rally and go with it.  But I think a lot of investors will have it in their minds to bail out when the market recovers to certain levels.


And I think they actually will bail out.

Finally a reaction in bonds



This may indicate the end of the sell off.

Brave souls create bottoms

And they profit mightily from it.  I am content to wait for a definitive change in momentum and profit less.

What happened?  Producer prices and retail sales were considered "deflationary".  The Empire State index was a disaster.  Industrial Production is down again and by a lot. Oil went to a $29 handle as China stocks tanked.


This is recessionary kind of reports.  And the Fed raised rates into it.  The great economy bragged about in the SOTU speech doesn't exist.  The poor economic reports may not be transitory like the Fed thought.  Who knows.

I am going to keep a closer eye on the early warning indicators.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

S&P

So what can the Fed do? And the government?

Usually the Fed lowers interest rates.  Usually the government does deficit spending.

But you know the problem.  The Fed didn't raise rates when they had the chance during an improving economy.  The government didn't reduce the deficit to near zero in an improving economy.

Who in the government?  Obama and the weak Republicans, weak from the white liberal elites in media, universities, and Hollywood.

So.  Now what are they going to do?

Bubble Bubble No Bubble

I think the game is over.  What game?  The ever increasing credit expansion and ever declining interest rates.

But can the Fed make our present situation a non-burst bubble?

S&P 500 Weekly charts with 50 week moving average.









Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Day America Died - Niki Haley's response

It is over for the Republican Party.  And with it America.

I am not interested any longer.  My goal.  To prosper in the new corrupt America.

It isn't my fault.  It is the fault of the passive good people.  They don't deserve shit.

Still a lot of sellers

Today may have exhausted most of the sellers.  I said I do anticipate some at bottoms.  And I did.  I got in at 1922 with SSO even though my system didn't say to.  BC got in with a 3x.

Europe is toast / America is toast

Breaking News: At least nine of those killed in Istanbul bombing are German citizens - Turkish official


Nine out of ten dead.  They were tourists.  Germans like Turks. They have allowed mass immigration from Turkey for decades.

Of course it was ISIS or ISIS inspirirees.  I have no sympathy for anyone visiting Istanbul.

Under America is toast:  The Philly cop shooting.  The White House doesn't know what the motivation of the Muslim shooter was.  The shooter himself said what his motivation was.  But it doesn't fit the liberal narrative.

And non-Muslims in the US do nothing about these liberal freaks running the country.  Well, actually people seem to be getting more political.  Democracy is great.  We only need to elect the right leaders.  Right?

Carry Trade vs. S&P

Sometimes the carry trade using the Japanese Yen is active, more active than others buying and selling stocks in the US.  As such times it leads the market. I have seen overnight where this is obvious.  Other times the Yen carry trade is reacting to the moves in the stock market.

The black only line is USD/JPY.  It appears that this last leg down in stocks, the line with red in it, lead the carry trade.  That means stocks were sold and Yen was bought by the carry traders unwinding their positions in response to a declining stock market.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Support held second day

The Pope is a MUTHER FUCKER

Pope Warns Migrant Influx Threatens Europe's 'Humanistic Spirit'



That filthy scum bastard was promoting the very immigration to Europe.

Honduras and Nicaragua are two of the worst countries outside the Middle East.  The P bastard promotes migration from there to the US.  Out of compassion.

The Pope wears a halo for this.  But it is exactly the opposite.  He hurts the people remaining in those two horrible countries by providing a relief valve for their gangster governments.  The pressure needs to stay on them and pathetic old farts like the Pope should be bring advocating pressure from other countries from the outside for reform and especially regime change.

Know these two things regarding politics right now

Conservative polls, websites, and analysts have been very very wrong in the past.  Right now they are obsessed.  I guess polls are great click bait.  I find the reporting on conservative polls to be annoying.

All this stuff about Hillary and emails is mostly click bait for conservatives.  The chances of indicting her are nil.  Even if she is indicted she will run.

I do want her to run.  If the Republican party cannot beat her that is proof there is no justification for its existence.

the Death of the West

The EU paid a huge sum of money for Turkey to use to stem the flow of refugees into Europe through Turkey.  Turkey isn't stopping anything.  When making a deal with Muslims, only you have to honor the deal.

The fools in Europe don't realize the Erdogan wants to be the center of the Caliphate.  That sending migrants to Europe is part of the plan.

Obama knows it.  Obama isn't a fool.  This is his plan for America too.

Quote from ?

Actually it isn't an exact quote.

In the left’s pyramid of grievances, Islamophobia outranks the war on women.

America is toast - Philly version

The mayor of Philadelphia is an expert on Islam.  The Muslim that shot a police officer said he did it for Islam.  Jim Kenney, the mayor, said he didn't.  Now they are saying the shooter has three other radical associates that are a threat to the police.

The mayor of Philadelphia is an expert on religion.  He said no religion teaches violence.

the Surveillance State

I am sure my threat level is yellow.  What I post here is enough to move me from green to yellow.

"The “big data” that has transformed marketing and other industries has now come to law enforcement."  Me: So do posting on how much you love and support the police on Facebook.

“A police call is something that can be very dangerous for a citizen.”

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Saturday, January 9, 2016

Ok. Why Europe is toast

Europe has a fire burning all around them.  And they won't put the fire out.  The fire will burn down their world.

The only hope is nationalism and breaking away from the European Union that will not so much as send one fire truck or pull out one fire hose.

Individual countries must try to save themselves.  Ultimately this will mean going back to individual currencies.

Ok. I will say something about China.

A lot of hedge funds got creamed on this last down draft just as they did on the last one.  The statistics from the government are bogus.  If the statistic are fraudulent that means the policies are fraudulent.

China is a control economy.  That is they are authoritarian.  They do not have rule of law.  And they are incompetent.

The IMF did a Bill Clinton move by including China in the SDR basket of currencies.  Bill Clinton included China in the WTF World Trade Federation in order to encourage them to reform. And of course to pay off his campaign donors.  What a scum.  China at the time was in no way qualified to join the arena of global trade.  And this action hurt the US measurably.  The US lost millions of jobs.

China is not qualified to have their currency included in the IMF SDR.  Good lord, they peg it to the USD. But the IMF want to encourage China to reform.  This inclusion brought close examination of China and capital didn’t like what they saw.  December’s outflow of currency was double the highest monthly outflow.  Capital flight.


I could care less.  All I hope for is that enough market participants act in a way that my momentum system correctly forecasts the direction of the market.

Production & Non-Supervisory Employment

*Early Warning.  When it drop rapidly.