Sunday, January 3, 2016

2016 Macro Economic measures as of November 2015



For real sales Doug uses retail sales.  Income is minus transfer payments.


The ADS index from the Philly Fed is the big four plus initial claims and Real GDP plus other stuff I have no idea about.  ADS uses manufacturing and trade sales.  I feel this index is contaminated by GDP.  But it is what it is and what else besides Doug Short do we have for a quick and easy look at conditions?


"The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data."

Plot of ADS Business Conditions Index in 2007

Conclusion:  Slow growth.  Industrial Production is in a recession.  Real retail sales are slow.  The ADS index has spend a lot of time recently below zero.

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