Labor Market Conditions Index leads by a lot. Private Non Farm jobs follow and confirm.
Up close look. I added a blue zero line for the right scale which is the change yoy of private non farm jobs. The thick black line put in by FRED obscures that job growth is above 2% a year.
The LMCI (red line) has not dropped in a way to give concern about an impending recession. But there is no doubt that it has not performed well recently and job growth has been slowing.
Actually, job growth is now just below 2% year over year.