Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Stealing GDP

The whole world is having its working age population reduced.  China’s working age population is going negative within a year.  So the Western world solves this by importing people from other countries, in effect, stealing GDP from other countries.  Good luck with that.

Negative interest rates may be the second to last trick in the bag for central banks to incentivize credit expansion to achieve GDP growth.

Debt growth per job created in up business cycles has been higher and higher with each cycle.  Inversely stated, job growth per amount of debt in up business cycles has been lower with each cycle since the 70s. In this current up cycle in the US, the job creation to debt creation ratio is extreme, to really understate things.

Inflation will be the last trick.  Eventually deleveraging will have to take place.

I would like to see controlled deleveraging now as a policy.  The costs will be hurtful.  But the costs can be allocated, rather, shared.  Lenders of course take a beating.  Shareholders do to.  Labor will suffer.

Instead, the next president will probably go pedal to the metal with deficit spending.  The Fed will do its part with negative rates and QE.  Then we get uncontrolled deleveraging.

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