Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Visiting a dying friend

I am visiting a dying friend out of state and will have not opportunity to post anything.

Now that's interesting

Risk on sentiment is incredibly strong

Far be it from me to call for a pull back.

The Warren Buffet indicator, sort of:

State vs. Federal

State governments are filthy corrupt.  So is the federal government.  But the federal government has taken on the role of ruler.

I think Janet Yellen is angry

For one, there were a number of Fed people who were spouting hawkish statements.  I think her extreme dovish statement was to slap them across their mouths.

Yellen wants to normalize rates in the worst way.  It is a burning desire.

As I have said, she needs a strong stock market to do this.  While futzing with rates seems to have everything to do with bond prices that is not true.  The wealth effect only comes from the stock market.  And the stock market wealth effect is believed to have the biggest macro economic impact.

When the stock market is strong, strong enough in her mind, she can raise rates for the negative reaction to have plenty of room on the down side.

I think she is angry that the economy and the stock market are not as good as she had hoped and had to defer raising rates in March.

But what a conundrum.

The economy isn’t strong and inflation is needed to mask this over and theoretically get people to start spending their savings.  But inflation puts pressure to raise rates which theoretically has a negative effect on the economy and induces people to save more.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Nobel Peace Prize

The Europeans gave Obama the Nobel Peace Prize.  Never was there a better reason to cut off ties with dying Europe.

Black people, the new Muslims

Bonds - thank you Janet

Thank you Janet.

Of course stocks and bonds are supposed to move in opposite directions but really at this point, who cares?  Right?

Thank you Janet for today

So what is in store for tomorrow?  Up and out of the box?

The Secret Service is in big trouble

If what Trump's campaign manager did to Michele Fields then the Secret Service is in for big trouble because they manhandle people to get them away from whoever they are covering.

You use Facebook because you are weak

You just can't do without it.  Can't imagine your world without Facebook.

I don't use FB because of Mark Zuckerberg.

In response to terrorist attacks he said, the only sustainable way to fight back against sickening attacks is to create a world where everyone feels cared for and loved.

Zuckerberg and the Pope.  And you.

I never heard a more dovish statement from the Fed

Janet Yellen saved stocks from dropping below the recent up trend line.

"Financial market participants appear to recognize the FOMC’s data-dependent approach because incoming data surprises typically induce changes in market expectations about the likely future path of policy, resulting in movements in bond yields that act to buffer the economy from shocks. This mechanism serves as an importaI 0nt “automatic stabilizer” for the economyAs I have already noted, the decline in market expectations since December for the future path of the federal funds rate and accompanying downward pressure on long-term interest rates have helped to offset the contractionary effects of somewhat less favorable financial conditions and slower foreign growth. In addition, the public’s expectation that the Fed will respond to economic disturbances in a predictable manner to reduce or offset their potential harmful effects means that the public is apt to react less adversely to such shocks--a response which serves to stabilize the expectations underpinning hiring and spending decisions."

Trump supporters are low information people

so they say.

America has no chance if 53% approve of Obama.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Snugglin' right up to the trend line

Still trapped after all these days

Any girl can claim anything in hindsight to get even with an ex boyfriend

There are lot of people in the administration at colleges that encourage girls to do this.  They seek them out.  They work on them.  It is all apart of the leftist Democrat party agenda to bring down the country by bring down boys.

"The student enrolled at GMU as a freshman in 2012, according to court records, and began a relationship with a female student at another university that lasted for more than a year. After they broke up, the ex-girlfriend told school officials and police about what she considered in hindsight to be sexual assaults."

America is toast.

And now George Masson University wants to double jeopardize the boy again by running him through new hearings.

Like I say, it is time to cut the cord with Europe

They are hopeless and they cost us a lot of money.

"Although the migrant suspect was arrested last Thursday, German police were hesitant to give out many details, including the man’s Afghan origin or his legal status. Throughout Europe, many officials have failed to report key statistics, hoping to protect Muslim migrants’ image and their own leftist agenda."

I rarely say read the whole thing but this is short:

Sea levels have stopped rising the last six years

Well, Obama did say if he was elected he would stop the rising of the seas.

Obama, the prophet.

Tam dies of stab wound - so what?

I don’t see what the problem is.  San Francisco is ok with Kate Steinle being murdered in the street by an illegal Mexican with a 5 felony rap sheet and had been deported a number of times.  What is it about his guy?  That he was a British citizen?  That is was a black couple that killed him?  What, are you racist?  A sexist and a racist?  Women aren’t allowed to kill too?

It was bombs, not arms, you stupid evil puke

And the bombs were not made by evil corporations.

Here is the puke submitting to I think Mexicans or South Americans. Submission is not how he means it but it is how it is received in the world of Islam and if the Western World is submitting to Islam then why should they even entertain any other way of thinking than Islam.  Satan at work.

Fight Islam with Love?  What a destructive moron.

You need to completely hold the line with your own culture and kill 30% of their young men in battle which will cause them to stop fighting. That is how you deal with Islam.  And you stop importing them.  If you don't stop importing them you are supporting the suicide of your own culture.

California Mexican serfs to get $15 per hour minimum wage

The minimum wage is inflationary even though employment is reduced.

Immediately upon passage, unions, the very same unions pushing for a minimum wage increase, make increasing the wages for higher than minimum wage employees a top negotiating priority with the justification to employers that they need to maintain the gap.

I know a lot of California liberals.  Being in favor of a $15 minimum wage increase is a matter of virtue signaling.  The Federal Reserve Banks wants wage inflation.  They think it is good for the economy in general.

Minimum wage people never close the gap as their prices go up along with the rest of the population and non-minimum wage people demand higher wages.  Middle management gets squeezed at first but they start switching jobs at a higher rate for higher pay.

It is futile but it makes you feel good.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Disparate impact can apply to every and anything, and probably will

"In June 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that federal housing law allows people to challenge zoning laws and other housing practices that have a "disparate" or harmful impact on minority groups, even if there is no proof that the discrimination was intentional."

Me: Baltimore County must provide blacks 1000 housing units in the suburban areas. It is obvious to everyone that blacks fail when they live in concentration.  This will help some black children, especially the boys, I have no doubt about it.  The only risk is letting blacks reach a critical mass where they revert to their ghetto ways.  I have seen this over and over so many times.  The pull of the culture is strong.  Blacks living with whites put up with whites as long as blacks are few.  A full generation of being in small numbers when living among whites is required to prevent the cultural pull damaging black children. Even so, it will not save all the black children.  Blacks really really don't like whites.  And even if you do this with a hundred cities with 1000 housing units each you still only have 100,000 housing units and say 400,000 blacks living in white culture spread around the county.  It may help but it isn't a final solution especially when white culture is more and more restricted to higher and higher income people.

Disparate impact will spread.  It will involve all non-white races and be applied for Muslims vs. non-Muslims.  It will apply to membership in any club or organization with a preponderance of white non-Muslims. And whites don't have to be a preponderance.  At Emory University there is a virulent anti-white culture and administration and yet whites are less than half the enrollment.  Work, school, clubs, church, even your personal associations and marriages will all will be suspect if there are too many whites.

Our enemy just succeeded in Palmyra

Again, our enemy, Al Assad, just dealt a major blow to ISIS.

Syrian government forces backed by heavy Russian air support drove Islamic State out of Palmyra on Sunday, inflicting what the army called a "mortal blow" to militants who seized the city last year and dynamited its ancient temples.

Who created ISIS?  And why?  Was it worth it?  Oh, that's right, its time for democracy in the Middle East.

There is an inherent arrogance in Americans. There is callousness about wreaking havoc in the Middle East.

Clinton and Obama get a pass

Why is that?  These two vile and evil people who have caused massive bloodshed and Obama continues to do so get a pass.  Why are they not war criminals?  Where are the groups in Europe pushing their governments to issue arrest warrants should either of them travel to Europe.  Oh, that’s right.  They hate Bush and love Obama.  I forgot.

The Republican Party supports Hillary and Barack with their mealy mouth protestations of their “foreign policy”.  Not one Candidate except Hillary Clinton has any idea what they would do as president except do more of what Hillary and Barack did and continue to do. Trump wanted Russia to take over and get bogged down in the mud but they were too smart and withdrew and are pushing for peace talks and a constitution for Syria looking like the good guys.

All this death, destruction and maiming because of the belief that Al Assad needs to be overthrown after having overthrown Qaddafi and Mubarak.  America is diseased.

Thank you Glenn Reynolds:

Some lines in the article:

In mid-February, a CIA-armed militia called Fursan al Haq, or Knights of Righteousness, was run out of the town of Marea, about 20 miles north of Aleppo, by Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces moving in from Kurdish-controlled areas to the east.

The attacks come amid continued heavy fighting in Syria and illustrate the difficulty facing U.S. efforts to coordinate among dozens of armed groups that are trying to overthrow the government of President Bashar Assad, fight the Islamic State militant group and battle one another all at the same time.

President Barack Obama recently authorized a new Pentagon plan to train and arm Syrian rebel fighters, relaunching a program that was suspended in the fall after a string of embarrassing setbacks, which included recruits being ambushed and handing over much of their U.S.-issued ammunition and trucks to an al-Qaida affiliate.

The CIA, meanwhile, has its own operations center inside Turkey from which it has been directing aid to rebel groups in Syria, providing them with TOW antitank missiles from Saudi Arabian weapons stockpiles.
While the Pentagon's actions are part of an overt effort by the U.S. and its allies against the Islamic State, the CIA's backing of militias is part of a separate covert U.S. effort aimed at keeping pressure on the Assad government in hopes of prodding the Syrian leader to the negotiating table.
"Fighting over territory in Aleppo demonstrates how difficult it is for the U.S. to manage these really localized and, in some cases, entrenched conflicts," 
The clashes brought the U.S. and Turkish officials to "loggerheads," 
But continued fighting among different U.S.-backed groups may be inevitable, experts on the region said.
"You certainly have the potential for it becoming a larger problem as people fight for territory and control of the northern border area in Aleppo."

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Mob rule rules in both government and quasi government

TEICHOLZ DISINVITED FROM FOOD POLICY PANEL: In a sign that the nutrition space is as defensive as ever, Nina Teicholz, an author who has publicly criticized the science behind the government's low-fat dietary advice, was recently bumped from a nutrition science panel after being confirmed by the National Food Policy Conference. The panel instead will include Maureen Storey, president and CEO of the Alliance for Potato Research and Education. The event is set to take place in Washington next month.
Story Continued Below

Teicholz said she was disinvited after other panelists said they wouldn’t participate with her. Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America, which is organizing the conference, confirmed he’d hoped to have Teicholz on the panel “but it didn't work out,” noting that panels often change. Gremillion added that he thinks Teicholz’s book “The Big Fat Surprise: Why Butter, Meat and Cheese Belong in a Healthy Diet” makes a “compelling” argument and the organization hopes to include her on a panel next year.

Me:  she doesn't fit the low fat narrative so she must be shunned. We know about settled science don't we?

Lesson: banks should not be allowed to pay interest on savings and investment in non-bank products should be tax free

Banks have time deposits that need to be shifted to demand deposits.  Stop paying interest on the many types of accounts and let the money flow through the non-banks.

Non-banks are true intermediaries.  Savings kept at commercial banks would flow to non-banks which does not diminish the commercial banks in anyway.  The savers money becomes the non-banks money and the non-banks keep their money in commercial banks.  When non-banks make investments or loans the recipients of the invested money and the loan proceeds keep that money in the commercial bank.  And so on.  Commercial banks maintain the same amount of deposits, it is just the time deposits now become demand deposits.

It is actually weird that banks collectively pay interest on money they already own, anyway.

One of the most important non-banks is insurance companies.  They make construction loans.  Savings accounts at banks are inert.  They just sit there doing nothing.  Banks do not and cannot lend out their deposits.  Instead, savers putting their savings in an investment product from an insurance company will result in a constructive use of the savings.  An insurance company is an intermediary between savers and borrowers.  Commercial banks are not.

If you provide you savings to a money market account at Ally bank a car loan will be funded.

Hedge funds invest in many different areas.  Equipment leasing companies provide financing for production equipment.  There are broker-dealers.  There are mutual funds. Mortgage companies.  Private equity funds.  Corporations offer (used to and will again) commercial paper.  Merrill Lynch is an investment bank.  So is Goldman Sacks.  You can buy securitized products (which pools your risk). Accounts Receivable lenders.

Eliminate taxes on investments in non-bank products at the same time you eliminate interest paying products in commercial banks will cause a massive outflow of savings from commercial bank savings accounts and into non-bank useful investment.

Remember, banks have no reduction in their deposits.  There is no destruction of money.

Quote: The Clintons are a criminal enterprise

from Spengler:

Friday, March 25, 2016

Pope, Pelosi, Puke

America and Europe are doomed.

Somalis = the chosen people

Fine.  Teach them English.  Doesn't matter.  They will never be Americans.  Islam and Americanism are opposite cultures.

Of course, this is part of the plan.

ECRI - more dreary news

This is ECRI's new recession alert.  In the past, their growth indicator was a poor predictor of recession and this their new index which back testing is easy to see.

The latest blip is up above where previous recession started.  See the red dots.

Corporate Profits for Q4 2015 - more dreary economic news

Year over year percentage growth, I mean decline:

GDP final for the 4th quarter 2015


Headline year over year:

Quarter over Quarter without inventory changes:

Year over Year without inventory changes:

Quarter over Quarter without inventory and net imports:

Year over Year without inventory and net imports:  The best one saved for last

Thursday, March 24, 2016

High health care cost is a choice

If it isn't a market economy it is a political economy.  The schmucks chose to have health care costs be high.

The List

Liberalism brought us:

Identity politics
skyrocketing healthcare costs
skyrocketing education costs
Kangaroo courts in college to railroad boys
The Deep State
Youth as indentured servants
The Federal government as loan shark
Men using women's restrooms

Moral relativism  (thank you Pope for the idea)
Invasion of M&Ms - Mexicans and Muslims
A federal agency called The Protection Bureau (be very afraid)

White Guilt
White Privilege
Whites as the only racist people

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Utilities have been doing well

Utilities have been in favor as have dividend paying big caps because people are going to them for safety.  The problem with utilities is that they are regulated companies.  They are only allowed to make so much money.  At these elevated prices it wouldn't take much of a drop in PE to offset several years of dividends.

Same goes for dividend shares.

Chances for the Fed to raise rates

The Fed should have raised rates on March 16.  It is a lost opportunity.  They probably can only raise rates once this year now. It has to be done before September as the election is too close for them to do it in September and be accused of influencing the election.  They are all democrats so they wouldn't want to hurt Hillary Clinton's chances in any way anyway.

Can they raise rates in December regardless of who is elected November?  Good question.  If it is Trump they will probably go for a .5% hike to kill the stock market and make it look like Trump being elected was at fault.

I didn't know slash attacks was the new knockout game

The New York Police report that year-to-date there have been nearly 500 slash attacks. That is up from the just over 400 this time last year.

Market trapped

Europe's Muslim immigration started a long time ago

Decades ago Europe started imported Muslims for cheap labor. Makes you wonder about such a policy. However, like I have said, at least the Mexicans have the same god as we do.  Different culture but at least the same god.

Nothing more revolting than the Pope washing the feet of immigrants except for one thing

Nancy Pelosi doing the same thing.

Monday, March 21, 2016

The reflation trade due to oil going up

You can see the 3 -7 year Treasuries started down the same day oil started up.

This time IEI is the solid black line and oil is the candlesticks.

If oil is going to keep going up from here I expect stocks to keep going up also.  But inflation is contrary to the health of bond prices.  Again it seems these Treasuries should have continued down in the last several days.

It isn't a supply and demand matter for these shorter term Treasuries because the 10 year Note and TLT exhibit the same pattern those less pronounced.

Bonds and Stocks are supposed to go in opposite directions

But during this massive increase in stock values over the past years, bonds have gone up together with stocks.  That is because the Fed was committed to low interest rates.

The Fed is now committed to raising rates and will when the stock market is strong enough to take a hit from doing so.

Looking at IEI, an ETF for 3 - 7 year Treasuries, you can see for the first time in a long time stocks and bonds moving in opposite direction like they should.  The candle sticks are IEI and the solid black line is SPY.

Notice how on February 11 there was a blow off top in Treasuries and there was a blow out bottom in stocks which you can't see with just closing prices (the black line).  They then moved in opposite directions.  And that was after moving in the opposite direction on the previous move after the August 2015 crash in stocks.  Finally, normalization was back.

Always being pessimistic I notice that on March 16, Fed day when the rate hike didn't happen, these Treasuries when up along with stocks.  But after March 16th which was an enormous up day, these bonds are not continuing to go up even as stocks continue to do so.

Do I think it means stocks might pull back?  Yes.  I do admit that it seems like the inflation trade is full on so I may be grasping at straws.

One thing I am more sure of is that the day of the Fed lowering interest rates is over.  Unless the economy tanks.  Then we get negative rates and bonds will go up again along with stock in the perverse fashion that has been going on for a very long time.  If negative rates are tried then when does the normalization happen?

This pretty much sums it up

Sums up what I don't know.  It seems like the prevailing sentiment.

The Deep State – EPA makes the laws, not congress

It isn’t just the deep state.  These car races are done in red states and the people doing the racing are considered low class.  The people in government feel the same about people in Nascar but Nascar is big business and even Obama has paid tribute to Nascar in spite of his contempt for them.

The Fed's stock market and interest rate hikes plan

When the stock market get high the Fed will raise rates.  When it gets low again it will defer raising rates.  Then the market gets strong again allowing them to raise rates again.  And so on.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

What happened? ADS and GDPNow

Last time we looked which was Feb 26, ADS was in positive territory.  Link follows.  But the way this works is that to the right of the two vertical lines on the right side there are very few reports included.  As more reports are included the squiggle line moves left and is more accurate.

GDPNow was forecasting 2.5% annualized GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016.  Now as of Mar 26 it is forecasting 1.9%.

Along with scary total business sales and a really bad inventory to sales ratio, maybe the Fed is afraid of a serious slow down in the economy and feels they can't raise rates.

(as you know I think they should normalize and I think we are heading towards stagflation)

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Quote - The last Swede

"Will the last Swede leaving Sweden please turn off the lights"

The real reason for negative rates

The real reason for negative interest rates is to provide free financing for government deficit spending.

The reason the Fed didn't raise rates

The real reason the Fed did not raise rates was to drop the dollar in order to increase commodity prices to save the banks from bankruptcy that lent to commodities companies who were going bankrupt themselves.

Oh yeah.  And multinational corporations get a boost in earnings if the dollar can be ratcheted down some.  They need it as earnings are not great and buybacks are not an optimal way to increase per share earnings.

It is foremost about the banks.  What?  You thought is was about you and your well being?

See? We don't need Muslims.