Saturday, March 12, 2016

10 year and 30 year treasuries down - negative rates?

They say that this is telling us the Fed is going to raise rates. Maybe not next week but in June.  The ECB just went negative with their official rate joining Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan. What a difference.

It must be that going negative means these economies are not growing and maybe even contracting. The US on the other hand has growth even if it isn't good growth.  And bonds going down would indicated expectations of growth and inflation.

Since inflation in the U.S. is now not being completely ignored it must mean we really do have an inflationary impulse.  Too soon to tell if it is a sea change from the deflationary mind set we have had for years.

I think it is a guess as to whether increasing rates in June will trash the stock market or spur the stock market upwards.  Sure, higher rates are supposed to be tightening.  But it isn't true.  Reducing the money supply is tightening and rates follow that.  Paying interest on excess reserves will raise rates but not reduce the growth of the money supply.  Regardless, the stock market reaction is a guess. Bonds get trashed.  Stocks, I have no idea.

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