Monday, March 21, 2016

The reflation trade due to oil going up

You can see the 3 -7 year Treasuries started down the same day oil started up.

This time IEI is the solid black line and oil is the candlesticks.

If oil is going to keep going up from here I expect stocks to keep going up also.  But inflation is contrary to the health of bond prices.  Again it seems these Treasuries should have continued down in the last several days.

It isn't a supply and demand matter for these shorter term Treasuries because the 10 year Note and TLT exhibit the same pattern those less pronounced.

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