Sunday, March 20, 2016

What happened? ADS and GDPNow

Last time we looked which was Feb 26, ADS was in positive territory.  Link follows.  But the way this works is that to the right of the two vertical lines on the right side there are very few reports included.  As more reports are included the squiggle line moves left and is more accurate.

GDPNow was forecasting 2.5% annualized GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016.  Now as of Mar 26 it is forecasting 1.9%.

Along with scary total business sales and a really bad inventory to sales ratio, maybe the Fed is afraid of a serious slow down in the economy and feels they can't raise rates.

(as you know I think they should normalize and I think we are heading towards stagflation)

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