Monday, May 30, 2016

Business Cycle Theory

I want to point out that the great recession started first then the finacail crisis followed.  The great recession was tagged by the ECRB as starting December 2007.  Then the finacial crisis hit after people started defaluting on their sub-prime mortgages.

Simplified cycle theory

Recession watch reduced to two cycles.

Two medium term cycles, Cap Ex and Wages.  Plus population growth which is a really long term cycle.

Companies maximize profits then clean up their balance sheets.  Borrowing takes place in the first phase and debt is liquidated in the second phase.  The borrowing in the first phase puts new money created into the economy.  Bam.  People have money to buy the products that the initial investment went to.  The exact oppose happens when companies retire debt.  Money is eliminated.

Wage growth is often thought of as the main driver in GDP growth. Much more so than new jobs because there are so many more people working that get raises than people with new jobs.  Regardless, over time wage growth tracks inflation.  Workers really don’t get ahead due to wage growth.  When wage growth exceeds inflation it really seems like workers are doing well and adding to GDP growth in a big way.  But eventually when wage growth exceeds inflation the the Fed kills off economic growth and wages revert to tracking inflation again after going below inflation for a period.  Most of the time wage growth simply tracks inflation.

Population growth is perhaps the most important factor in GDP growth.  This is because wages over time only track inflation so wage growth isn’t a big factor over time.  But each new human body ensures a certain amount of GDP growth.

Where are we, Cap Ex.
      Q4’15 was down $5.4 billion from Q3’15 and Q1’15 was down $23.7
      billion from Q’4’15.

{click to enlarge)




(First estimate)



(First estimate)


(Second estimate)



(Second estimate)



      This is a slow down so far.  You don’t know if it is a change from
      profit maximizing to balance sheet clean up until the slow down
      becomes sufficient enough to declare it so.

Where are we, Wage Growth.
      Average wages all employees as well as non-supervisory and
     production workers up 2.5% from a year ago.  Median CPI
      is up 2.5%.  Wages are not ahead of inflation.  The Fed probably
      doesn’t feel the need to cool the economy by raising rates but
      really does want to normalize.

     The Fed follows core PCE, not CPI.  Core PCE is at 1.67%.




Watch for wage growth to exceed inflation.




Early warning of a slowdown and a greater slowdown is cap ex for equipment and initial claims.  Look for initial claims to go above 300k and come down but not a low as recent lows and subsequently create an uptrend.  I am not predicting it.  Just watching for it.



----------------------------------------------------------------------
Where are we, Slowing Growth Population


What is being done by the sick and deranged leaders in the US and Europe about very low population growth is to import the least desirable people.  Prediction: in the near future there will be great competition among low population growth countries, which is 100% everywhere except Africa, for the best people.  Hopefully the torches and pitch forks don’t have to come out first for this to happen.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Hillary is a filthy scum hypocrite






Para-military like this?  Hunh Scum ?



You and your evil husband deported this scared child back to a communist country after his mother drowned trying to get here.  Remember?  Elian Gonzales.

Sunday, May 22, 2016

It not pedophiles it is homosexuals


WHY ARE DEMOCRAT-CONTROLLED INDUSTRIES SUCH CESSPITS OF SEXUAL PREDATION? Lord of the Rings star Elijah Wood says Hollywood is gripped by a powerful pedophile ring and Tinseltown is covering up a ‘seedy’ underbelly full of predatory ‘vipers.’

Sick America



MORE TROUBLES FOR MIZZOU: Mizzou Women’s Softball Team Says Title IX Is Killing the Sport: University of Missouri administrators forced the team to accept weak players, for equality. “Female athletes essentially claim that university administrators, citing Title IX, have forced the team to bring on under-qualified players. This has in turn reduced the amount of game time enjoyed by more skilled players. Why is Title IX the culprit? Administrators don’t want the federal government to accuse Mizzou of violating federal law, so they have to make sure the softball team is big enough. They don’t want it to look like the school is giving more support to the boys’ team than the girls’ team.”

Saturday, May 21, 2016

Bad bad


Tribal behavior in Democrat controlled cities




Since they don't mention the race I am assuming it is blacks or Hispanics.  If a white person is out in the jungle at night this is what will happen to you.  If you are black or Hispanic and you are alone you can expect this also.

South of Market is a dangerous place even as early as mid-evening. It is also one of the locations where car windows are smashed and nothing stolen as a recent fun trend.

Options:  It is obvious.  Stay away from tribal zones.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Bullish Friday


An end of the day valiant try got the S&P to close above my magenta trend line.  If the S&P opens Monday at the close it will be nicely above the line.  I think that is bullish.




the weak Republican Party




Recently Romney said Trump not releasing his tax returns disqualifies him from the presidency.

I think other than Trump, Christie was the only other candidate that could get away with speaking out against Hillary.  Even Cruz would have been too measured.


The old guard of the Republican Party never ever wanted to rule as a majority.

Quote, thanks Ed Driscoll


"...is that divorce and abortion have become the outstanding achievements of the new political/cultural system."

Europeans would rather die than be called a bigot.


Thanks Ace.


And die is what Europe will do.  The US should incrementally start cutting ties with the European Union and forge new ties with any country the leaves the EU.

ICYMI - proposed Republican Platform


Here’s the Make America Great Again Platform

The “Make America Great Again” Platform could include the following proposed legislation:
  • Repeal Obamacare in its entirety.
  • Enact legislation that creates a national health insurance market.
  • Expand health savings accounts.
  • Mandate price transparency in health care and medication.
  • De-fund Planned Parenthood so long as it performs abortions.
  • Prohibit federal funding for or review of state curriculum mandates and tests, which helped nationalize Common Core.
  • Authorize funding for a border wall, including provisions for alternative funding, such as levies against remittances to Mexico.
  • Triple the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.
  • Mandate nationwide E-verify.
  • De-fund sanctuary cities.
  • Raise the prevailing wage paid to H-1Bs to make U.S. citizens competitive.
  • Increase standards for admitting refugees and asylum-seekers, including stronger background checks.
  • Pause in issuing green cards until U.S. citizen unemployment improves.
  • End birthright citizenship, i.e. no more “anchor babies.”
  • Allow veterans to use Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) benefits to purchase private health care from any doctor or care facility that accepts Medicare.
  • Increase funding for VA treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder.
  • Increase VA funding for job training and placement services for veterans
  • Fund OB/GYN services at all VA hospitals.
  • Simplify the tax code consistent with Trump’s proposals.
  • Eliminate all income taxes on singles making $25,000 or less, and on all married couples making $50,000 or less.
  • Enact legislation for a one-time repatriation of corporate cash held overseas, with repatriated funds to be taxed at 10 percent and no other penalty.
  • Enact a 15 percent maximum business tax, for corporate tax as well as small businesses and freelancers.
  • Eliminate the death tax.
  • Enforce the Second Amendment by ending gun and magazine bans.
  • Enforce the Second Amendment by requiring states to put criminal and mental health records onto background check system.
  • Enforce the Second Amendment by enacting a national right-to-carry law, with permits to be valid in all 50 states.
  • Authorize the Keystone Pipeline.
  • Provide for an initial round of funding for new infrastructure construction and repair.
There is more:

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Google isn't just anti-conservative


They are leftists.


This is the person they glorify on their homepage today.


Click on the image and this is what you get.  A racist and Marxist.



Heroes and Knaves


The Fed are heroes for saving us from the financial crisis they created.


What a racket.

Fed rate hike in June likely


“The Fed has shifted from, ‘if the data pattern improves we will have the green light to hike,’ to ‘unless the data pattern weakens we have the green light to hike,’” Gundlach, 56, wrote in an e-mail Thursday.


Last time stocks had a conniption fit.


This time?  I don’t know.  But stocks have paused their climb in part due to that worry.  The worry of what other market participants are thinking.

I think the hawkish statements in the Fed minutes was just to test the waters. If the market doesn't react negatively that will give them confidence to raise rates in June.  Remember, they really really want to raise rates very very badly.

Quote from Spengler in Asia Times


David P. Goldman, Spengler, from an article he wrote in Asia Times.

Asian observers should try to understand that we Americans can be crazy. We are a nation founded on ideas rather than common language and ethnicity, and when we get the wrong idea, we go right off the rails. The decline of American power under the Bush and Obama administrations is not the result of grand historical forces or sociological trends. It’s the result of ideological silliness on a grand scale.


Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Can't even rely on conservative meda


for accurate reporting.  This is a tie.  There is no way to call this a win for Clinton over Sanders.



Remember grid lock? It doesn’t exist any longer.


I am not saying middle managers are not abused because I know some who are.  I just don’t understand how a country called America allows their Supreme Leader to simply decide what is right and wrong without benefit of congress.

From Fox Business.



CTP - Correct Transgender Policy


When a boy finishes his hormone treatments and has his sex change surgery, then he may use the girls shower, locker room, and toilet.

Target misses top line


Target is the numerator and the retail sector is the denominator.  The chart going down means that Target is doing worse than the retail sector.


Since the boycott started I have made two small purchases elsewhere that I would have made at Target.

Options.  It is a small effort, but it is something.  I want to do more.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Iranian women in the US be afraid, very afraid


The U.S. isn’t quite there yet allowing Shiite crazies to attack women on who Iran has issued a fatwa.

Obama had a chance to make regime change early in office during Iran’s color revolution.  Instead he wanted Iranian crazy Muslims to become civilized.


Didn’t happen.  But hey, no problem, Obama has a 53% approval rating.

Iran Accuses Kim Kardashian of Acting as Instagram Spy

AP
AP
BY:  
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard accused Kim Kardashian West of acting as a secret agent on behalf of Instagram to influence Muslim women with photos portraying scenes contradictory to the teachings of Islam.







Pope, son of devil


As I have said, the most pernicious thing in liberalism is its foundational belief in moral relativism.  Here it is on display in its most destructive effort to destroy Western Civilization.

“I don’t think that there is a fear of Islam as such but of [the Islamic State group] and its war of conquest, which is partly drawn from Islam. It is true that the idea of conquest is inherent in the soul of Islam,” the popesaid Tuesday, the Catholic newspaper reported. “However, it is also possible to interpret the objective in Matthew’s Gospel, where Jesus sends his disciples to all nations, in terms of the same idea of conquest.”

Then he goes on to blame the West for they Syrian crisis without mentioning the filthy guilty Clinton Obama.

The pontiff then said western nations should primarily focus on how their own policies contributed to the refugee crisis instead of “ghettoizing” new arrivals.

What are the options in the face of such naked evil?


Assisted dying


I equate liberalism’s assisted economy with liberalism’s assisted dying.

John Hussman’s point is apropos today.


Today the stock market went down on fears that there will be a rate increase in June.

Hussman’s point is real value is only the cash flow you get from your investment.  Valuation has nothing to do with that.  Valuation affects the rate of return you get on that future cash flow.

Monetary policy cannot create real value.  Cash flow is what it is.  Monetary policy can only increase valuations which in turn reduce your rate of return should you invest at a high valuation.


This is an excellent article on how it all works.  High valuations don't mean valuations can't get higher.  It means you rate of return will be lower.




I think it might be better to just be a speculator.  If you can catch a 30% drop in the market and a 30% recovery, you will have much more than the dividends would have paid you had to stayed in for the ride down and up again.

Monday, May 16, 2016

Quote provided by Ace of Spades HQ


TSA long lines - are you a fool?

Two traveling friends and family have told me of excuses the TSA agents made.

One, the TSA agent threw up his hands and said I am so far behind I don't know what to do.  And walked away for 5 minutes.

Another had her computer out in a separate bin as required and the TSA agent had a problem with it and call his supervisor.  She came and said she needed to get a tape measure while walking away.  Five minutes later he let her and her computer through.

There is no hope for America because no one, absolutely no one will seriously attempt to eliminate government unions.

What are your options?

Do you believe Janet Yellen

has your back or not?

Quote - Glenn Reynolds



In capitalism, the rich become powerful. In socialism, the powerful become rich. In fact, under socialism, being powerful is the only way to become rich.

Happy Anniversary to the Cultural Revolution





You have been a great success here in America since I first saw my fellow college students carrying around Mao's little red book.  The Baby Boomers in college at the time have brought America to its peak leftism.

True: Europe lost its fertility



'We will give them fertility. We will breed children with them, because we shall conquer their countries.' 

                  - Sheikh Muhammad Ayed gave the speech at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem



Sunday, May 15, 2016

Diversity is the common culture holding us together


I don’t think it will work.  In fact, it is exactly this culture that will tear the country apart.


Options?

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Parked behind my car





America is so civilized.  In any other country someone doing this would be fucked.  But instead, we are fucked.

Options?

Murder rate skyrockets in 20 major cities – victims are blacks and “Latinos”



This is an acceptable outcome for freeing blacks and Latinos from white oppression, just as chaos, death and destruction is acceptable for freeing Muslims from their Middle Eastern dictators.


You go, America.  Nice work.

Options?

Stay away from major cities where blacks and Latinos live.

By the way, they are not done with us yet


I don’t know what Obama and his Deep State are going to do next and it will be soon, and it will be more crushing us under their thumb.  No!  Now it will be crushing us under their heel.  We will love Big Brother in the end.

Normal people would have done something about this long ago.  So I expect nothing to be done about the next wave.


What are the options?

Since there are no brave leaders* to lead us out of this, it seems going along with it is good meaning don't get noticed.  Joining is best.

Best option for your children or grand children.  Be a lawyer from the top 15 law schools.  Work directly or indirectly with the Federal government.  A position in a big lobbying firm would probably be the best.  Actually, you can work for those special interest generalist lobbyists without being a lawyer but you need to have Washington D.C. experience.  Have your graduating children or grandchildren start out as an intern for congress. They can work their way up from their.  That way they only have to graduate from college without going to law school.

I think that is #1 best option.

*Trump could do it but he is a wuss.  When he got pushed back by the Islamist mayor of London, he backed off his temporary Muslim immigration moratorium.

Cruz would have tried.  But the Republican party hates him so very very much.  They would sabotage him every step of the way.

Erdogan is right on this but doesn't known the truth





While I have focused on the depravity of liberalism regarding their intrusion into toilets, showers, and locker rooms, I have always known it is a planned distraction.

Please pass that along.  That this was plotted out step by step knowing they would end up with Obama mandating the elimination of civil rights for girls that while non-binding and illegal, as a president authoritarian with a Republican congress, the leftist on the Supreme Court equaling the rightists, there is no way to stop him.

That is correct.  The Supreme Leader of the United States has mandated the elimination of civil rights for school girls.

Voting cannot stop the leftists.  The Judiciary cannot stop the leftists so lawsuits are just a joke.

What are the options?

Friday, May 13, 2016

A lot of air space under the S&P


Why would Hillary be forced to withdraw by her party?


Because her losing would be devastating as she is the PARTY standard bearer.  Sick fucking party standard bearer.


In comes Biden.  Him losing not so embarrassing.

The difference between the Democrat sick fucking party and the Republican party is that the Democrat party initiates disease and the Republican party just goes along with it.

The Republican party has failed miserably on social issues.

Have you ever heard Paul Ryan speak on even one social issue?  Does he have a problem with Title IX?  Does he want to get along?  Has he demonstrated going along?

Voting is insufficient.

They are going to grind your children and grandchildren down

until they express their love for Big Brother.

http://cps.edu/SiteCollectionDocuments/TL_TransGenderNonconformingStudents_Guidelines.pdf




Eventually you will love Big Brother too.

Weak. Complacent. Cowardly.



The main way the very smart unrelenting left will destroy our society is to undermine traditions.  And force foreign traditions on us.

Undermining such anthropological foundations such as differences between the sexes is brilliant.

No more sex.  Just gender.


We are getting what we deserve.  We are complacent.  We are weak.  We are cowards.

Thursday, May 12, 2016

soon, veils excepted

Sign on a gas station convenience store in Jackson, CA.  It says, For everyone's safety please remove hoods and motorcycle helmets before entering the store.

Makes sense.  If you are hiding your face for the security camera you must be up to no good.  If you show your face when entering the store then you must be cool to go.

Soon however, they will be required to add Veils Excepted.

{click on image to enlarge}

Target doing fine in spite of the boycott


Really, nobody cares more about buying their stuff than Americans.

Here is a chart of the ratio of Target to the Retail Sector.  Target is the numerator and since the line is going sideways Target is doing just as well as the retail sector.

 

Alien vs Predator


https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2016/05/11/alien-vs-predator/?singlepage=true

To those who abandon the Republican Party in this hour of crisis, I say: Good riddance! Go now, and never come back. Your bad advice and dogmatic arrogance brought America from a lone pinnacle of greatness in 2001 to second-rate status in 2016, the fastest decline of a dominant power since Napoleon invaded Russia. Go pester the Democrats, and do as much damage to them as you did to us Republicans.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

We used to do assimilation


You need to click on the image to enlarge it.


Actually, it is over for us too



Camel's nose

under the UK tent.

The enemy within

and it is us.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/262813/all-muslim-terrorists-are-crazy-daniel-greenfield



If Trump wins and he doesn't save us, then what?

This reminded me how diseased liberals are



The EU will bring us down

{click image to clarify it}




We need to start reducing trade with the EU.  Trade will be just another avenue, for the camel to put its nose under our tent.

Let Russia dominate them, be their overlords.  They are incapable of ruling themselves.

Those migrants in Europe

They are almost all men.  They are cowards.  They are arrogant cowards.

They have abandoned their sisters and their mothers.  And they demand free living.

The Pope loves them.  Merkel loves them.  Obama loves them. 

Monday, May 9, 2016

A truly diseased society

College tuition is a mass transfer of wealth from the many to the few.




This is a liberal operation that the Republican party went along with.

And you thought there was hope?

Only 43% think badly of Obama.  53% like him.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Reuters Evil

This picture is staged by Reuters.  There is no reason for the woman to be running from the coils of barbed wire.  I wouldn't be surprised if this woman was a Reuters employee.  See her clothes.  See the shadow of the camera people on the lower right.


Nothing can be fixed with the liberal media in charge.


It has to break.

The bad case scenario


Earnings decline.
Investors accept that truth and PEs decline. I.E. stocks go down.
Bond spreads go way wide.
This causes the recession to go deep enough to be believed.
Massive deficit spending begins.
QE4 is initiated.
It fails as rates go deeply negative.
Then we get helicopter money.
Currency and Trade wars become intense.


I adapted this from Soc Gen’s perennial bear Albert Edwards.

The goal of the collage experience is to weaken men

The goal of weakening men is to weaken women.  You need strong women if men are strong.

The regressive progressives have taken over colleges and universities and their goal is to weaken both men and women.  Weak people are easier to control.


Burn it all down.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Trump will cream Clinton because…


Trump will outdo the Democrat party with identity politics.  Identity politics is what the Democrat party has used to divide the country.  They invented it.

Trump will one up them and use it to unify the country to pull in minorities.  Contrary to all the hate speech accusations that come from Democrat party Liberal operatives.

I am not saying Trump will get 90% of the black and Mexican vote.  But he will get a bigger percent than ever before for the Republican candidate.

Trump, and only Trump has the celebrity status that will facilitate his ability to counter act and override the Liberal Democrat media.


It has come to this.

Burn it all down

When I was in college there were students carrying around Mao's little red book.

{click on image to enlarge}



http://legalinsurrection.com/

http://collegeinsurrection.com/

Friday, May 6, 2016

Like I said, It can't be fixed - proof


Ben Rhodes and his conspirators admit to creating a false narrative on Obama giving nukes to Iran.

And the Democrat party media remains silent.


As I said, it can’t be fixed because of the Democrat media.  It has to break first.

Quote

What is the real name for anti-capitalists?  Communists.
      by Joseph Constable

You read in all the left wing media describe protesters as anti-capitalists.  That is because the Democrat party media supports them.

Violence is the political currency of the left.
      by Joe Huffman

Great comment about liberalism vs conservativism



Today the Pope called for the destruction of Europe



https://www.yahoo.com/news/pope-francis-tells-europe-tear-down-walls-111724670.html?ref=gs

"And in a rhetorical flourish with echoes of Martin Luther-King's legendary 'I have a dream' speech, the pope said he dreamed of a new European humanism that embraced the poor, the elderly, the young and the sick."


Good G_d in heaven, this freak actually is accusing socialist Europe, the place like no other on the whole planet for its socialistic care of people, of needing more humanism.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

Target boycott

I bought something at Walmart that I was going to buy at Target the day I found out about the boycott petition and signed it.


The boycott has had zero effect on the stock price.  In the chart Target is the numerator and the retail industry is the denominator.  If the line is going up Target is doing better than the industry.  If the line is moving down Target is doing worse than the industry.  Since the line is going sideways Target is doing just as well as the stock prices of the industry.



I don’t care if the boycott doesn’t hurt Target.  I cannot patronize a company that hates women.

Here is someone who thinks the whole transgender thing is phony.  I agree. Look at Bruce Jenner.  He won't cut his junk off.  Some do though.  The get a surgical vagina.  Maybe those people are just gay.


There was a time when freaks just kept quiet and lived in the closet.  Now society pays for sex change operations.  Peak Civilization is here.

Trump the...

What do you call this?  Ted Cruz’ father calls him evil.  Trump says Cruz’ father was associated with Lee Harvey Oswald.  Paul Ryan says he isn’t ready to support Trump.  Trump says he isn’t ready to support Paul Ryan’s agenda.  Give no quarter?  Take no prisoners?


Vicente Fox apologizes.  Trump immediately accepts his apology.  Masterful.

Velocity affected most by the productivity of debt


“Functionally, many factors influence V, but the productivity of debt is the key,” Hoisington and Hunt propose. “Money and debt are created simultaneously. If the debt produces a sustaining income stream to repay principal and interest, then velocity will rise because GDP will eventually increase by more than the initial borrowing. If the debt is a mixture of unproductive or counterproductive debt, then V will fall.
Financing consumption does not generate new funds to meet servicing obligations. Thus, falling money growth and velocity are both symptomsof extreme over-indebtedness and nonproductive debt.”


From Jim Grant of the Interest Rate Observer

So besides there being the sin of low interest rates killing velocity, there is the sin of high and unproductive debt.

This is why we are doomed

It is going to have to break to fix it.

  • Some 60 federal departments, agencies, and commissions have 3,297 regulations in development at various stages in the pipeline. The top five federal rulemaking agencies account for 41 percent of all federal regulations. These are the Departments of the Treasury, Commerce, Interior, Health and Human Services, and Transportation.
  • The 2015 Federal Register contains 80,260 pages, the third highest page count in its history. Of the seven all-time-highest Federal Register total page counts, six occurred under President Obama.
Just to make sure you have it clear, the Federal Register is an annual count.



Trump being smart if not brilliant



Republican Ben Sasse is a fool

Republican Ben Sasse is talking about a third party.  I remember Ross Perot.  He elected Bill Clinton by drawing principled people out of the ineffectual Republican Party.  This will happen again.

The left has no lofty ideals they will fight and die for.  Everyone else is a bad person or a moron to them.  Power is everything. Everyone needs to be played. There will never be any Democrats voting third party.  Not one.  They will go to the voting booth and laugh all the way home.

https://www.facebook.com/sassefornebraska/posts/593031420862025

The problems of the United States cannot be fixed because of the left wing Democrat media white liberal elitists.

It must break before it can be fixed because of them.

Burn them all down