Tuesday, May 17, 2016

John Hussman’s point is apropos today.

Today the stock market went down on fears that there will be a rate increase in June.

Hussman’s point is real value is only the cash flow you get from your investment.  Valuation has nothing to do with that.  Valuation affects the rate of return you get on that future cash flow.

Monetary policy cannot create real value.  Cash flow is what it is.  Monetary policy can only increase valuations which in turn reduce your rate of return should you invest at a high valuation.

This is an excellent article on how it all works.  High valuations don't mean valuations can't get higher.  It means you rate of return will be lower.

I think it might be better to just be a speculator.  If you can catch a 30% drop in the market and a 30% recovery, you will have much more than the dividends would have paid you had to stayed in for the ride down and up again.

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