Thursday, June 30, 2016

Rasmussen poll


I think Rasmussen poll is good as polls can get, however.

Again, polls are propaganda



The theory behind polls is voter suppression.  Most pollsters are Democrats and most polls are paid for by liberal organizations.  The attempt is to minimize enthusiasm for non-liberals, in most cases.  Sometimes when the pollsters are alarmed at the weak showing of their candidates, they will swing the poll results even worse to 1) scare the campaign in question into action and 2) be able to show a big up swing for their desired candidate on subsequent polls.

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Obama & Clinton – traitors to the West


So now a Fast & Furious rifle is traced to the terrorists who killed so many people in France.

I thought from the get go that Hillary Clinton designed the program.  You may remember her going on air blaming the guns stores near the border for supplying guns to the Mexican cartels.  That people would buy the guns legally and give them to the cartels.  All along it was the ATF doing the gun running.


This sneaky shit is right down Hillary Clinton’s dirty alley.  She said that gun stores near the border need to be shut down.  This was just to set a precedent of shutting down gun stores for a reason.  It was to be another slice of the salami on gun control.

Totally false.  Morally corrupt.

I am still predicting inflation


The dual mandate has been met.  Full employment and inflation.

But you say the Fed’s PCE price index is only at 1.6%.  Well, Jerome Powell, Fed governor, adjusts it for oil prices going up and for a slightly lower dollar to come up with 1.95%.

All markets are functioning. So there is no crisis for central banks to lower rates into.  As inflation goes up markets will increase interest rates and the Fed will follow.

I don’t know if inflation will or will not hurt stock prices.  The best argument for being bearish is that the stock market is high due to low rates.  If that is true, the argument goes, then stocks are likely to go down if rates go up.


Another thing.  Growth is slow.  Earnings have slowed.  That is the trend as the trend is for higher prices.  I am actually predicting a case of stagflation.

The best case for stocks is that the U.S. economy is the best place to be as problems increase in the world.  Capital inflows have been strong and should continue.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

What the Left thinks of you


From the DailyKos website which is funded by Soros.  At least it was once.  It was founded with Soros money.

Murdering, Lying, Thieving, Rat-F***Republican Pieces of Sub-AmphibianSh**...


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/26/1068404/-Murdering-Lying-Thieving-Rat-F-Republican-Pieces-of-Sub-Amphibian-Sh-


...mendacious, death-loving, frothing, lamprey-mouthed, inhuman, abominable, atrocious, verminous, rapacious, sadistic, bullying, invasive, grasping, psychopathic, twisted, warped, animalistic, belly-crawling, mouth-breathing, illiterate, innumerate, know-nothing, imbecilic, sheep-rapingk

Question for the pro inflation people


In your world are retail discounters detrimental to the economy?

Should we ban retailers from conducting sales?

Monday, June 27, 2016

Who makes these rules?


ans: White Liberal Elitists




Hate on Republicans


Pix from gay parade in NYC blaming Republicans for Orlando.



And did you say there is hope?

Why isn't she under arrest?


Because it is California and the police will not protect you from the left.

The neo-Nazis had to "run and hide".  The cops let it happen.

It is over for this country.  You really should at least listen to her for a few minutes.

https://youtu.be/V2dd1YoDULg

Baltimore's spike in homicides



The city suffered 127 more homicides in 2015 than in the previous year, Richard Rosenfeld wrote in “Documenting and Explaining the 2015 Homicide Rise: Research Directions,” released this month by the Justice Department.

Rosenfeld identifies three "plausible explanations" behind the increases: a drug market expanding in response to the heroin epidemic, an increase in prisoners being released and a "Ferguson effect," following the deaths of young black men in confrontations with police.
He says any explanation requires additional research. On the Ferguson effect, for example, he calls for more data to answer questions such as: "Does widespread discontent lead offenders to believe they can commit crime with impunity?"
Maryland instituted extremely restrictive gun laws which took effect 1/1/15.  They don't mention that and just because it is a only a correlation doesn't mean it isn't a true causation.

Leftist violence condoned again


In Sacramento the leftist attacked peaceful protesters.  The justification for not covering it by the media that way is that the peaceful protesters have a hateful opinion.

If you think there is ANY hope you are naive.

The U.S. couldn’t form today so why ask it of Europe?


Take Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.  Do you think the people of Idaho would ever have someone like her be a Supreme Court Justice?

Take Clarence Thomas.  The people of California would just as soon drag him behind a pickup truck than have him be a Supreme Court Justice.

What ties the country together?  Hated Whiteness?  Gay Marriage?  Accommodating Islam?  Abortion?  Gun rights? Discrimination against Whites and Asians for college admission?

What the left thinks is that (one) people have to be dependent on government so they can’t act on their differences, and (two) the government needs the power of control so people can’t act on their differences.  Except for leftists who are allowed to be corrupt, immoral, violent, and totalitarian.


Just as it has always been.

Alternative to breaking up the EU - the United States of Europe


With no national boundaries there is not importing or exporting within the EU, just like in the U.S. 

BANKS

No national central banks means when Italy imports BMWs from Germany, the debt that is owed to BMW doesn’t also become an Italy National bank debt.  Inter-national trade in Europe ends up having to be settled by the national banks of respective countries.  In the super state the debt will be owed only by the buyer of the car and owed only to BMW (or rather the lending institution).  Inter-national trade becomes intra-national trade.  Or inter-state trade, like in the U.S.  There are no longer any national banks.  Only one central bank.

WELFARE

Welfare becomes federalized.  This theoretically benefits misfit nations like Greece and Italy and the burden falls on Germany and France.  Had England no left the union it would fall on them too.  This is just like in the U.S.  Wealthy states pay more for the welfare in poorer states.  It equalized the benefits.

DEMOCRACY

Democracy is the problem.  Will they have one man one vote?  Then smaller previous nations will be at a disadvantage.  Will they have an electoral college for president?  That also puts smaller former nations at a disadvantage.


Just like in the U.S. ! I don’t think the U.S. would form today.  I don’t think a United States of Europe can form today.

Stock market perspective


Recent volatility

Percent down from recent high to closing low.

-7.4%    October 2014
-4.9%    December 2014
-12.2%  August 2015
-11.9%  January 2016

-5.5%    June 27 2016 7:20 am PT

I don't make any predictions how far this decline will go.  The markets had been taking a more defensive structure starting months before this sell off.  Bonds started climbing a year ago.  Utilities started up six months ago.

Note that in October 2014 the intraday low was -9.4%.  January 2016 intraday low was -14.1%.

Volatility has been going on since late 2014 and is expected to continue. The trouble with these down drafts is that first it takes a down draft before the market goes even lower.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

British pound sterling / stocks - don't be played


You shouldn't look at your 401k loss from Thursday and instead should look at it from Wednesday. Or May 19th.  Go ahead.  Look back a month.  You are even Steven.   

The pound was irrationally momentarily stronger before the Brexit vote.

The headlines are the pound went down in value by 9%.  On Thursday it took 67 pence to buy a dollar and on Friday it took 73 pence to buy a dollar.  See A in the chart.

But in February, B, the pound required 72 pence to buy a dollar. Which is only 1 pence stronger than on Friday




Besides, cheaper money relative to other currencies is what the central banks are all about. So the Brits get an advantage here benefiting their export economy.

ICYMI - gun control - this is choice

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/146307088451/why-gun-control-cant-be-solved-in-the-usa

             But we do know that race and poverty are correlated. And we know that poverty and crime are correlated. And we know that race and political affiliation are correlated. Therefore, my team (Clinton) is more likely to use guns to shoot innocent people, whereas the other team (Trump) is more likely to use guns for sporting and defense.
             That’s a gross generalization. Obviously. Your town might be totally different.
            So it seems to me that gun control can’t be solved because Democrats are using guns to kill each other – and want it to stop – whereas Republicans are using guns to defend against Democrats. Psychologically, those are different risk profiles. And you can’t reconcile those interests, except on the margins. For example, both sides might agree that rocket launchers are a step too far. But Democrats are unlikely to talk Republicans out of gun ownership because it comes off as “Put down your gun so I can shoot you.”

It isn't long. I recommend reading the whole thing.

Friday, June 24, 2016

Great Quote


“Apparently the Brits needed super delegates”

from a commenter on a gun blog.

The Left is at it as usual


Anytime something or someone is contrary to the Left, which is authoritarian come totalitarian, the name calling goes from this to this:

fear > xenophobic > racist > Nazi

Truth is they are commie Nazis.

World not melting down from Brexit


On Wednesday the S&P 500 went up 30 points in anticipation of a Remain vote outcome.  Which is pretty stupid.  A Remain success meant that nothing changes.  So the market went up 30 points on the great investment logic that nothing changes.


As I write at 8:50 am PT, the S&P is down 56 points.  Subtract 30 from that and the market is down about 26 points from Wednesday.  Which is 1.2% which is not that big of a down day any longer.  Or an up day.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

You think there is hope?




Obama’s approval was 54% right before the Orlando Shooting.  It is now 53%.

Parapet


This is a parapet.  No, this isn’t Korea.  It IS Koreans however, defending their building during the Watts riot in Los Angeles, United States of America.

Brexit and the Muslim mayor of London


It is my opinion that the election of a Muslim as mayor of London is the single biggest thing that increased Brexit support.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

We are so lucky to have the Fed


The Fed on June 15, 2016 after it didn’t raise rates at the FOMC meeting.


"The pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed," the Fed said in a statement. It added, however, that "economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen" even with gradual rate increases.

Walls not enough - need a mote


Walls like this in dense areas definitely help.  One, the animals are afraid of being seen going over the wall.  Two, they don’t know what is on the other side where they are going over.  Three, they are vulnerable to defensive action as they go over.


Walls, inside, should have an electronic solar powered mote of some kind.

Best Option for secure living


Many apartment and condominium complexes, large or small, have access to the door from the outside.  Your door needs to be inside a building.  There needs to be one door at one end of the ground floor building and one door at the other end.  Both doors need to be security doors with electronic access.

The building itself needs to be in a complex where there is one entrance and that entrance needs to have a security guard with a railroad style crossing gate.

Ground floor unit windows and patios are vulnerable.  There should be no ground floor units.  Use the ground floor for parking.


Living in a single family home, town home, condo or apartment complex in a dense area should have a wall completely around the development or block with no more than two places to enter and depart.  Those entrances now need a security guard with a gate.

It isn't asking your friends and families to stop and notify the guard who they are coming to visit.  It isn't too much to inform the guard who you are expecting.

Hopefully it won't be necessary in the future to add parapets to the roof.


the Big Four




Employment and Income continue on a steady uptrend.  Sales has some sporadic monthly declines.  Industrial production is in a shallow recession.

Sure, along with the Big 6 and excise tax receipts, there is a slow down.  It isn't much but as I say, you need a slowdown before more of a slowdown.

Don't count out the Fed from more QE or even helicopter money.  A recession is not going to be allowed unless there is a Republican president.

ADS is not looking good


Since the end of 2014 the ADS is having trouble getting up above the line.  It has lower highs and lower lows.  Not good.  The ADS is the "Big Six".

a Bad Option



Don’t ever act on your own.  Don’t expose yourself.  Don't speak out in public. Don't get caught taking photographs. You will be followed.  You will have your car vandalized.  You will have harassing knocks on your door then no one is there went you answer.  You will have disgusting things left at your doorstep.  They will yell outside your place then run away.

Never retaliate.  In the NBA, retaliatory acts are punished 10 times the original foul.

In middle and high school, when a white student defends himself he is punish, not the Mexican who threw food at him.

Power and the Left (regressive neo-progressives)


What is inaccurate here is the word tendency.  The left does it on purpose. The proper word is deliberate. This list describes the Obama radical left administration perfectly.


From Charles Hugh Smith via Zero Hedge quoting Norman Cousins.

Cousins' description of the pathology of power is an uncannily accurate account of the Fed and other central bank fiefdoms.
"Connected to the tendency of power to corrupt are yet other tendencies that emerge from the pages of the historians:
1. The tendency of power to drive intelligence underground;

2. The tendency of power to become a theology, admitting no other gods before it;

3. The tendency of power to distort and damage the traditions and institutions it was designed to protect;

4. The tendency of power to create a language of its own, making other forms of communication incoherent and irrelevant;

5. The tendency of power to set the stage for its own use."

Humanitarian crisis - I told you, now repeat it to others


As I said, Obama and Clinton created the greatest humanitarian crisis since Mao and Stalin.

And half the country approves of Obama and loves Clinton.


Here is the ugly proof, not that we didn't know:


Is the United States morally responsible for helping now by importing Syrian refugees?

I don’t want one refugee coming here and they are coming by the thousands though only leaked in a hundred at a time.

The moral responsibility is destroy the Obama and Clinton administration.  But no.  Not happening.  We are denuded as a people.

Options.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Demographic Ice Age


World population growth will be decent during the next 15 years.  In 2030 is starts to really slow down – the economic demographic ice age.


Are you going to be really old in 2030?  Don’t worry about and live life with abandon.  Let your children deal with declining world population.

About virtue signaling


People want to be right and they want to be seen by others as virtuous.  That is one of the reasons the left always wins.  They set up themselves as the virtuous ones.  That is why they call themselves progressives.  It sounds good, and non-progressives are not virtuous, to say the least.

I did the books of the LA ACLU in days bygone


The ACLU is all about virtue signaling and the policy of the ACLU has come to be:


               Whatever anyone wants anyone should have it and somebody                        has to give it to them, and,
               Americans have no right to their traditions and values.  Only
                                   foreigners have such rights.




Sunday, June 12, 2016

Muslims need to leave


And yes, Obama needs to resign.  Clinton needs to leave.  The Bush family needs to leave.  Paul Ryan needs to gather his family up, pack his Mexican flag, meet up with Romney and his family at a private Airport and move to Mexico.  The Bushes will go to Patagonia.

54% on Gallup like Obama


Some Options


Mobs:
If you live in a Democrat controlled city with concentrations of blacks or Mexicans, shelter one hour before sunset to one hour after sunrise. Traveling by car at nigh - wait for local traffic news which is where mobs will first be reported.

Terrorism:
I think soft targets like restaurants are more safe after San Bernardino.  There were only 14 people killed there and Americans were not much phased by it.  More deaths are required and I imagine Muslims think 50 deaths is the minimum now required when planning.

Muslim faces:

Situational awareness is often promoted by law enforcement.  Muslims now know not to dress like a Muslim when executing an attack.  Look at pictures on the news and on the internet of Muslims. Concentrate on their faces.  If you see normal dressed faces like those you have studied be alerted and observe the behavior closely.  If it looks fishy, get your family and friends out of there.

Vile and evil Obama and Clinton


By not identifying the foundational cause of the Orlando massacre, Obama and Clinton give legitimacy to Islam.  Giving legitimacy to Islam is to de-legitimize Western values.


Ramadan and Gay Pride month





You can’t have gay pride month and Ramadan month running at the same time.

Beautiful people



Lets follow our Supreme Leader


and import millions more Muslims during the first term of the next president.

Why would a gay night club not have security guards with very capable guns?


Because they are Obama people and are willing to be martyred for their Supreme Leader.

There was just one security guard on duty and he exchanged gun fire with the Muslim but was ineffective.  Security capability needs to be upgraded most everywhere.

When they blame guns remind them that guns are banned in Paris.  And Belgium.  But Muslims have many contacts outside Western countries and can and will smuggle them in to the US should guns be banned and confiscated here.

Beautiful people and guns


Muslims are such attractive people.




This will be another opportunity to blame guns, not Muslims.

Diversity, the lie


So just what is it that unifies America.  Ties us all together.

Diversity, they tell us.  (Things like the values of the founding fathers have long been tossed out the window.  Ask any college student.)

Of course, throughout history it is just the opposite.  That is why boarders are good.  You then can negotiate, interact in many ways with people with other cultures in a controlled fashion.  When you are all mixed together is chaos and division.




Did you notice how popular President Hussein is?



There is no hope.  America elected a Marxist Muslim president.  The majority of Americans approve of him.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to import millions more Muslims in the next President's first term of office.


Why it is hopeless


Consumer spending down.
Muslim kills 20.

Obama up.



Friday, June 10, 2016

The proper term for progressives


The proper term for progressives is “regressive neo-progressives”.  As in regressive neo-progressives are destroying the world.

And that is how you should refer to them.

Too much and too little at the same time – die economists!


Experts on the economy tell us that there isn’t enough spending and too much savings and stimulus is needed to create aggregate demand.

They also tell us there is an imbalance in the world.  That China has too little consumption (spending) and too much savings which has led to over investment and the US has too much consumption (spending) and too little savings which has led to under investment.


Which is it?  I cannot describe my contempt for economists.

New Hires confirms trend break


You always want higher highs and higher lows.


The hires from JOLTS confirms the trend is broken, for now.  May, June, and July (the one month trough) will bear watching.



Important.  There is still hiring going on.  This isn’t a retrenchment.  And there is only so much hiring that can be done because of cycles.  I don’t know if this is a trend to take us to a recession.  I can’t predict.  Hardly anyone can.  I mean predict accurately.  I just go with what is happening and try to be early to see it.

Federal Excise Tax Receipts down. FUTA too.


This is a real time indicator of economic activity.  The top figure reads 33 billion two hundred twenty three thousand dollars.  This is a small amount of federal revenue but it may be the best real time indicator of the economy.

Excise Tax        May
      Recipts        YTD
2016 33233
2015 34088
2014 32746
2013 31939
2012 34007
2011 28400
2010 27970
2009 25665
2008 26250
2007 27113
2006 29192
2005 28501

Is it a trend?  I have no idea.

Federal Unemployment Tax receipts are down also.  Also small but indicative of new hiring.  FUTA is collected, a very small percent, on the first $6,000 of payroll of each employee each year.  Increased collections after the first three months of the year mean new people are being hired.  If an employee gets a second job elsewhere the tax is also applied to the first $6,000 of the second job.  I think that 2015 was the peak for people getting second jobs.  They all have second jobs now and so there is no more labor available for the second jobs.

FUTA Tax        May
Receipts        YTD
2016 6801
2015 7481
2014 7075
2013 6491
2012 5709
2011 5190
2010 4924
2009 5085
2008 5508
2007 5433
2006 5570
2005 5047

I hate to reveal how much I go out to eat and drink.  Since local professional teams have been and are winning it is a lot.  I make a point of asking the table servers and bar tenders if they have another job.  100% say yes.  Yes, Obamacare.  But that is not the point I am making.  I am saying part time jobs may be tapped out.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Bernie Sanders babies taught a California lesson


Hillary Clinton got AP to declare that she had the nomination the day before the California election in order to suppress the Sanders vote.  It succeeded.


The Bernie babies learned a lesson about messing with the neo-progressives.  Next Trump is going to get a taste of it too.

Why there is no hope


It is because the left always wins.  Always.  But things don’t necessarily breakdown fast.  Sometimes they do like for Italy after joining the European Union.  But for Europe, it will be slow.  For Venezuela it is fast.  But the Roman Empire was in decline for 400 years before it expired.


I make no predictions of collapse here in the US.  I just think of scenarios and options.

There is no justification for the Republican or Democrat Parties as is


I am not suggesting a third party.

The white liberal elitists of the GOP should move over to the Democrat Party with their kind.  This includes the white upper middle class still in the GOP. The Bernie Sanders supporters should move over to the GOP and join with the Trump supporters.

This would be an accurate alignment of interests based on class.  The GOP would have the numbers and the youth, but the Democrat party would have money and the media, and, blacks, Mexicans, and Muslims.

Conservatives in the GOP would have to battle it out with the Bernie babies over a lot of issues.

But the one unifying issue is their survival. The survival of the middle and lower classes.


Monday, June 6, 2016

Flattening of the yield curve


I am not sure the current flattening yield curve predicts anything because the yield on the 10 year Treasury is low and declining.

From my observations, a recession follows a flat or inverted yield curve (10 year note minus the 2 year) when the long term interest rates are climbing, or have been climbing, and the short term interests rates rise to meet them.

In the past, long term rates have been rising because of a heated economy.  Then the Fed increases short term rates in an attempt to cool down the economy which cooling down turns into a freeze so to speak, a recession.

Presently, long term rates are not rising and the economy is not hot.  So long term rates are low and the recent increase is short term rates is bringing the two rates closer together.

But because the long term rates have not been climbing nor are they high, I don’t have any idea what this means when the short term rates are climbing.

I do have to note that while the long term rates are not high historically speaking, they maybe be high in the sense that rates in general have been declining over decades and long term rates may be low in a sense of it being normal now.

Perhaps then, long term rates don’t need to be high or climbing very much for a recession to be predicted once short term rates start to converge on long term rates.  Because this could be true I will continue to keep an eye on the 10-2 spread.

With jobs appearing to slow down, and a shallow industrial recession, it doesn't seem good for the yield curve to be flattening, even if because of low long term yields the whole yield curve seems muted.



The disappointing May jobs report - this is why


The annual cycle of hiring and firing peaks in November December, troughs in January, then climes to a peak in June, then drops for one month of July, finally climbing back to a peak in November December.

May employment is the first month that is higher than the previous November December high coming up from the trough in January.

And it was again this way for May 2016.  It is just that it wasn’t as much higher than it usually is.

Here is the number of more employed people in May than those employed in November December.  (I use November as it is usually the peak month of the year but December is never much lower, or higher).

May 2016   470,000
May 2015   902,000
May 2014   694,000
May 2013   778,000
May 2012   774,000
May 2011   452,000
May 2010     93,000
May 2009  -4,629,000

You can see that 470,000 more jobs in May of 2016 than November 2015 is a disappointment compared to the previous four years.  Combined with a shallow industrial contraction people are concerned.

But do note: employment is higher


June 2016 will be highly anticipated.  Here is both May employment subtracting November employment, and, June employment subtracting November employment.


May/Nov                                Jun/Nov
’16 / ’15      470,000             ’16 / ’15      000,000
’15 / ’14      902,000             ’15 / ’14      1,386,000
’14 / ’13      694,000             ’14 / ’13      1,281,000
’13 / ’12      778,000             ’13 / ’12      1,188,000
’12 / ’11      774,000             ’12 / ’11      1,112,000
’11 / ’10      452,000             ’11 / ’10         942,000
’10 / ’09        93,000              ’10 / ’09        213,000
’09 / ’08    -4,69,000             ’09 / ’08    -4,812,000


Then comes the one month trough in July.  A lower trough would be really bad.  You always want to see higher peaks and higher troughs.

Saturday, June 4, 2016

California is a long way on disarming its populus


Its citizens that will abide by the law, that is.


After seeing the San Jose Police protect the uncivilized Mexican thugs as they beat up white people I wonder just what the liberal and Mexican leaders in government have in mind for us.

Options?  One could leave the state, if one could.

True, I live near San Jose, Calif.


Friday, June 3, 2016

The erasure of Western Civilization


The erasure of Western Civilization is upon us.  It don’t know how fast things will deteriorate.  But I have underestimated the speed of it so far.

Pre civil war activity


This is just pre-civil war activity.  Just wait for the war.

Scanning the media re Trump violence


As expected, the media doesn’t finger the uncivilized Mexicans for the violence against white people in San Jose.

The left is the dominate culture in the US because it owns the media and people are ignorant.

Options?

I already don’t go to Mexican restaurants.  I already don’t go to food places that hire Mexicans for order takers or servers.  I boycott ESPN.  I boycott Comcast.  I don’t hire Mexican’s for services and forget about paying them under the table.  I don’t care how cheap they are.  I don’t go to movies that have name actors and actresses.

My actions are meaningless.  What are the options?

Since political violence is justified on the left and the left owns the government and their swat teams I think one can only hide from the Nazis.  That is, hide from the white liberal elitist who support the Nazis.

I guess this isn’t yet a civil war.  Just a cultural war where the left is allowed to be violent for political purposes.

lost an arguement


I argued with someone that the police would protect my community from marauding Mexicans if it came to that.


After seeing the police let Mexicans beat up whites in San Jose I know it isn’t true.  I lost the argument.

Options?

Bizarre jobs report makes perfect sense


Obama and Biden had met with Yellen and told her she is not to raise rates because it would hurt their party.  Yellen said you have to give me the means to not raise rates.


So Obama told his loyal party bureaucrats at the BLS to give her the means.  So we get a massive drop in the unemployment rate as the fallout figure of them fudging the employment data.