Friday, June 10, 2016

Federal Excise Tax Receipts down. FUTA too.

This is a real time indicator of economic activity.  The top figure reads 33 billion two hundred twenty three thousand dollars.  This is a small amount of federal revenue but it may be the best real time indicator of the economy.

Excise Tax        May
      Recipts        YTD
2016 33233
2015 34088
2014 32746
2013 31939
2012 34007
2011 28400
2010 27970
2009 25665
2008 26250
2007 27113
2006 29192
2005 28501

Is it a trend?  I have no idea.

Federal Unemployment Tax receipts are down also.  Also small but indicative of new hiring.  FUTA is collected, a very small percent, on the first $6,000 of payroll of each employee each year.  Increased collections after the first three months of the year mean new people are being hired.  If an employee gets a second job elsewhere the tax is also applied to the first $6,000 of the second job.  I think that 2015 was the peak for people getting second jobs.  They all have second jobs now and so there is no more labor available for the second jobs.

FUTA Tax        May
Receipts        YTD
2016 6801
2015 7481
2014 7075
2013 6491
2012 5709
2011 5190
2010 4924
2009 5085
2008 5508
2007 5433
2006 5570
2005 5047

I hate to reveal how much I go out to eat and drink.  Since local professional teams have been and are winning it is a lot.  I make a point of asking the table servers and bar tenders if they have another job.  100% say yes.  Yes, Obamacare.  But that is not the point I am making.  I am saying part time jobs may be tapped out.

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