Monday, June 6, 2016

The disappointing May jobs report - this is why


The annual cycle of hiring and firing peaks in November December, troughs in January, then climes to a peak in June, then drops for one month of July, finally climbing back to a peak in November December.

May employment is the first month that is higher than the previous November December high coming up from the trough in January.

And it was again this way for May 2016.  It is just that it wasn’t as much higher than it usually is.

Here is the number of more employed people in May than those employed in November December.  (I use November as it is usually the peak month of the year but December is never much lower, or higher).

May 2016   470,000
May 2015   902,000
May 2014   694,000
May 2013   778,000
May 2012   774,000
May 2011   452,000
May 2010     93,000
May 2009  -4,629,000

You can see that 470,000 more jobs in May of 2016 than November 2015 is a disappointment compared to the previous four years.  Combined with a shallow industrial contraction people are concerned.

But do note: employment is higher


June 2016 will be highly anticipated.  Here is both May employment subtracting November employment, and, June employment subtracting November employment.


May/Nov                                Jun/Nov
’16 / ’15      470,000             ’16 / ’15      000,000
’15 / ’14      902,000             ’15 / ’14      1,386,000
’14 / ’13      694,000             ’14 / ’13      1,281,000
’13 / ’12      778,000             ’13 / ’12      1,188,000
’12 / ’11      774,000             ’12 / ’11      1,112,000
’11 / ’10      452,000             ’11 / ’10         942,000
’10 / ’09        93,000              ’10 / ’09        213,000
’09 / ’08    -4,69,000             ’09 / ’08    -4,812,000


Then comes the one month trough in July.  A lower trough would be really bad.  You always want to see higher peaks and higher troughs.

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