Sunday, July 31, 2016

Cartoon


“Terror has nothing to do with Islam”


They need to establish that.  They are subversive like left wing progressionists are subversive.  They need to get into every institution.  And will with the help of the Left.  Muslim and Liberals are on the same team.

How long before Europe is in chaos from Muslim getting enough control?


How much time to we have here?  What will you do when your grandchildren and harassed and beat up every day by Muslims?  Will the authorities stop this?  Answer: No.  Today white kids are harassed and beat up every day in school and it usually is deemed to be the fault of the white kid.





Do the Muslims look like their organized?  If you organize liberals will tag you as white supremacists. Racist.  Bigot. Nazi.  They will get the police and courts after you.  You will be named and shamed in the New York Times.  The Democrat Party will pay people to harass you at your home.

More pictures here:

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/31/pictures-huge-pro-erdogan-islamist-rally-germany/

Friday new highs extreme with an S&P 500 PE of 25.03




But the Nasdaq exchange didn't exhibit the same behavior.  So I am thinking a bunch of money managers were afraid of missing out on a rally they now expect to happen.



New 52 week lows for the Nasdaq are scraping along the bottom.  There was a slight green shoot of new lows on the NYSE.


GDP estimate for 2nd quarter 2016


Headline GDP



Year over year GDP



Real Final Sales "headline"



Year over year Real Final Sales



Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers "headline"



Year over Year Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers

Thursday, July 28, 2016

U.S. & Europe are high trust societies

quote:

“It has been said that Western societies are "high-trust" societies, that is, members of these societies trust their fellow citizens and the various institutions that keep the systems running.  We trust each other to (in the majority) behave honorably.  We trust the police to identify and apprehend the suspect when our fellow citizens fail our trust.  We trust the justice system to try and punish, if necessary, those suspects.  We trust the banks to hold our money and at least not lose it.  We trust our media to report the facts.  We trust our government to treat us fairly.”


Now me: If trust is lost in a previously trusting society, there is chaos.  That is because in non-trust societies they already have a varying degree of police state that keeps things under control.  Trusting societies don't have that in place.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Bureaucracy is a tool of the Left


Bureaucracy is a tool of autocrats.   The US bureaucracy is a one party bureaucracy.  Achieving that was an important step for the Left in taking over the control of the country.

American feminist definition


Someone who supports the wearing of hijabs for women and slicing off clitorises.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Ha ha. Quote


I am not voting for the class president of a failed generation. Meaning Hillary Clinton.

French playing offense instead of defense


The French team coach Francois Hollande shouts out to his team, “All Out War on ISIS”.  Meaning they will send more military resources to Syria.

Yet, Team France is getting hammered by Team ISIS at their home games.


The reason France is not going to enter the playoffs is because they keep importing more ISIS players.  And the ISIS team has a pretty good bench as well as some star players already.

Monday, July 25, 2016

Progressivism definition is incrementalism


Progression is a better term.  It is incrementalism.  I will use the term progressionist instead of progressive.


Here is a Bloomberg headline today:

Move progressively, not all at once.  Hitler, Mao, Lenin, Trotsky, and Stalin were not progressives.  Many other Marxists opposed their totalitarian tactic.  They wanted to progressively, meaning incrementally, infiltrate middle class values and their institutions.

Back then they always used the term bourgeois: 

 


Or bourgeoisie:




European and American Leftists know better than to use the communist word of the philosophers and academics back then.  Hugo Chavez and Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela sure didn't and don't have a problem with using the term.  The hate the middle class because the middle class stands in the way of converting everyone below the elitist like themselves to the same proletariat class.

I remember back in the 50s and 60s when the leftists abandoned their efforts to make massive gains in taking over capitalism.  I remember one of them saying why go to all that trouble trying to manage the means of production and we don’t do that very well anyway.  Let the capitalist run the companies but we will progressively pass legislation to out our liking to gain more and more control over companies.  First, they infiltrated the Democrat Party.  I watched them take over the League of Women Voters.  I watched them take over Common Cause.

 ET: We are all familiar with the destructive results of revolutionary communism, particularly as it matured under full totalitarianism under Stalin and Mao. However, there were other political thinkers which advocated a much more subversive approach for the implementation of communism in the West, such as Gramsci for instance.
Shocked that during World War I workers ended up fighting other workers instead of the “maleficent” bourgeois, these thinkers reasoned that this was because Europeans were too conditioned by their own nationalism, families and religion – all of which broadly formed the basis of their civilization. So to achieve communism these institutions had to be eradicated from society, not necessarily by force like in Russia or China, but by progressive infiltration and ideological replacement of the media, education, politics, unions and even the religious institutions themselves.






Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Options today Wednesday 7/20/16


Options bullishness of Tuesday may have presaged the rally today.  Today options ended up being less bullish.  Sort of neutral I think.

my Breadth indicators not so good not so bad


NY stock exchange advancing issues less declining issues continues to step along with the S&P 500.  In fact, the a-d line lead the rally up early on.


But my more important breath indicators of equal weight to the index, the 500 against the 100, junk against investment grade, did not continue to go up along with the S&P going to new highs.



If you want the market to continue to rally you don’t want this to start going down.  It looks good but didn't go as high as the previous high even though stocks went to all time highs.




And this looks great also.  It really collapsed along with the rally.  Trouble is it can’t go down much further.  And how long will it stay down?



This isn't looking bad at all but I do note that the 52 week new highs have not gone to new highs along with the indexes.




These things need to break upward to keep the rally going in my opinion.






Two bullish chats.  Dividends and Utilities going down relative to SPY.



















Sunday, July 17, 2016

More crap from another governor on police shootings


This from a spokesperson for Gov. Kashich of Ohio.

“The bonds between our communities and police must be reset and rebuilt -- as we're doing in Ohio -- so our communities and officers can both be safe.

Utter crap.  Violence against police is condoned by the white liberal elites in the NY media.  Leftists leaders spread this green-lighting of violence all around the black communities.

Obama and Clinton are never called out for their leftist desire to spread discord and undermine the country.

Fascist Democrats and Liberals


Quote from LA governor on the ambush of Baton Rouge police:

"This is an unspeakable and unjustified attack on all of us at a time when we need unity and healing," Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said.

What a bunch of shit.  We don't need unity.  We need to fight the fascist Democrat Party and Media. 
But nobody wants to do that.  Especially the GOP.  Where are the leaders screaming that Obama green-lighted this?

China is back


If indeed China is back it will help the world economy from their massive demand for natural resources.

While improved economics should help the US stock market, I wouldn't be so sure.  If the recent run up in stocks is due to things being so bad in other regions, improvement in those regions could pull the rug out from underneath the stock market.

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Economy vs stocks


The economy appears to be poised to take off.

It should be if the stock market is a discounting mechanism of the future.  The S&P 500 index PE is almost 25.  That means investors think that earnings are going to take off, or they think there will be more stock buybacks.  Or both.


That doesn’t mean the stock market will not demonstrate continued volatility.

Or be vulnerable to shocks.  OR, THE BIG ONE.  RATES GOING UP.

Calls Puts on Friday 7/15/16


What a difference a day makes.  Wednesday, Calls continued to be cheaper relative to puts just as the trend had been during the rally.  This made sense to me because as a rally matures the theoretical probability of it coming to an end increases.

On Thursday there was a capitulation of the bearishness of both Call and Put buyers with Calls increasing in price relative to Puts.  This is where option Buyers are wrong.  At the extreme.

Because then came Friday.  Not only did Calls drop in price relative to Puts, Calls dropped in price in an absolute sense while Puts actually increased in price in an absolute sense.  The options Buyers took the exact opposite sentiment they did on Thursday and did so with a vengeance.  Options buyers may be right again only one day later.


In summary, this says option Buyers were Bearish on Friday.  Very Bearish. It will be interesting to see if options Buyers are actually back to being right after their capitulation on Thursday.

Islam and the Left


A failed coup makes the object of the coup stronger.


Erdogan will consolidate his power.  

I think Islam and the Left are similar.  Both are totalitarian.  Both have world domination ambitions.

Race war as a plan


Race war is part of the plan.  It is an extension of identity politics.  It is Obama’s and Clinton’s domestic version of their foreign policy of destabilization.

There was and is no strategy in the Middle East.  Not even one speculated by white liberal elites in the media.  Obama and Clinton just didn’t like what they saw there are were going to shake things up.

No different than their domestic policy of destabilization.


The timing of the race war is because an election is coming up.  The scum purposely create crises so they can say you need to elect them to save you from the crisis they created.

Production & non-supervisory wages June 2016


Can you have a recession if wages don’t shoot up to 4% growth from a year ago?


Wages vs. CPI June 2016


This is the year over year change in wages for all employees and the consumer price index.

In the business cycle theory, at least Keynesian business cycle theory, wages going up create cost push inflation.  Economists hate that.

All employee wages had been rising steadily along the 2% line.  Recently all employee wages has increased simultaneous with CPI all items.  Wages up 2.6% are growing faster than the CPI up 1%.  This is great. Right?








Here is a long term view using wages of production and non-supervisory employees.  Rising wages get the blame for inflation but it looks like sometimes wages are just following inflation.  Doesn’t matter.  When wages or CPI reach 4% year over year growth the Fed is going to cool things down.  We are far from that 4% meaning the economy has room, and time, to grow.


May 2016 Business Sales and Inventories



Total Business Sales for May turned up a small amount within a declining trend.  This may be the beginning of a new uptrend which would confirm the recent improvement in other economic indications.







Here is year over year percentage change.  June needs to go above the zero line to prove things are on the cusp of getting better.





JIT Just in Time inventory practices can be seen in the declining ratio.  The spike in 2009 was simply companies being stuck with inventory when the recession hit suddenly and hard.  I do not understand why inventory levels have increased since then.




Friday, July 15, 2016

CPI didn't scream inflation


Today’s CPI report did not scream inflation so I view it as market neutral.

I think market sentiment as it currently stands would not like a rate hike.  In the big picture, a booming economy, inflation, and rate hikes are simultaneous along with a rising stock market.

But I don't think the economy and markets are in that frothy phase.



But it is clear to me that the Fed’s inflation objective has been met:

{click to enlarge}



GDPNow & NowForecasting


The strong Big 4 & Big 6 reports have had a positive impact on the GDP growth forecasts. Second quarter 2.4% and 2.2%.  Third quarter 2.6% from Atlanta.