Thursday, July 14, 2016

Calls and Puts on SPY

Option buyers are considered a contrary indicator.  Actually, they are right most of the time.  It is only at peaks and troughs they are wrong.

During this entire rally, Puts have been increasing in price relative to Calls.  This makes sense as the rally matures, buyers of both Calls and Puts think the risk is increasing that the rally will lose some steam.

Today, there was a bit of capitulation as Calls increased in price relative to Puts.  That is, the bulls for once were more enthusiastic than the bears.

$5 out of the money August Calls went as a percent of $5 out of the money Puts from 53% yesterday to 60% today.  September: 55% to 60%.

This could be a sign of an imminent pause or reversal of this rally.

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