Saturday, July 16, 2016

Calls Puts on Friday 7/15/16

What a difference a day makes.  Wednesday, Calls continued to be cheaper relative to puts just as the trend had been during the rally.  This made sense to me because as a rally matures the theoretical probability of it coming to an end increases.

On Thursday there was a capitulation of the bearishness of both Call and Put buyers with Calls increasing in price relative to Puts.  This is where option Buyers are wrong.  At the extreme.

Because then came Friday.  Not only did Calls drop in price relative to Puts, Calls dropped in price in an absolute sense while Puts actually increased in price in an absolute sense.  The options Buyers took the exact opposite sentiment they did on Thursday and did so with a vengeance.  Options buyers may be right again only one day later.

In summary, this says option Buyers were Bearish on Friday.  Very Bearish. It will be interesting to see if options Buyers are actually back to being right after their capitulation on Thursday.

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