Saturday, July 9, 2016

June 2016 Jobs Report - mine


The annual cycle of hiring and firing peaks in November December, troughs in January, then climes to a peak in June, then drops for one month of July, finally climbing back to a peak in November December.

Here is both May employment subtracting November employment, and, June employment subtracting November employment.

May/Nov                                Jun/Nov
’16 / ’15      435,000             ’16 / ’15      1,117,000
’15 / ’14      902,000             ’15 / ’14      1,386,000
’14 / ’13      694,000             ’14 / ’13      1,281,000
’13 / ’12      778,000             ’13 / ’12      1,188,000
’12 / ’11      774,000             ’12 / ’11      1,112,000
’11 / ’10      452,000             ’11 / ’10          942,000
’10 / ’09        93,000              ’10 / ’09          213,000
’09 / ’08    -4,69,000             ’09 / ’08    -4,812,000

June this year shows a decent increase in jobs from the peak in the previous Nov/Dec.  It is disappointing compared to the last two years.

Slower growth is better than even slower growth.  July is a key month as it is the trough half way in the annual cycle.  Last year's cycle was really good in July with 443,000 more people employed than in the previous November peak.  We want to see many more people employed in July than in the previous November/December peak period.  Otherwise we are back to where we were at previous peak employment.

Jul/Nov
'16 / '15      xxx      
'15 / '14      443,000
'14 / '13      202,000
'13 / '12        14,000
'12 / '11       -99,000
'11 / '10     -332,000
'10 / '09  -1,124,000
'09 / '10  -6,409,000

Here is the peak to peak employment - November to November.  This is what we target every year.  The months between the peaks tell us how well we are doing on the way to the next peak.  The growth in jobs up to June has been slower than previous years.  It isn't worth anything but the Fed is projecting a robust second half of this year.


Nov/Nov
'16 / '15      xxx      
'15 / '14      2,791,000
'14 / '13      2,788,000
'13 / '12      2,505,000
'12 / '11      2,145,000
'11 / '10      1,946,000
'10 / '09         712,000
'09 / '10     -5,527,000

{click to enlarge}


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