Friday, August 5, 2016

July 2016 Jobs Report - mine

The annual cycle of hiring and firing peaks in November December, troughs in January, then climes to a peak in June, then drops for one month of July, finally climbing back to a peak in November December.

July's employed people is important as it is the mid-way point in the cycle and is a trough. Only having 63,000 more people employed since the peak in November 2015 is very disappointing.  The previous two years had so much better growth in jobs by July.

'16 / '15        63,000
'15 / '14      443,000
'14 / '13      202,000
'13 / '12        14,000
'12 / '11       -99,000
'11 / '10     -332,000
'10 / '09  -1,124,000
'09 / '10  -6,409,000

Here is a chart showing the percentage gain in employment, year over year.  It is obvious that the rate of job growth has stalled and even now actually has slowed down. Click to enlarge.

Here is the actually number of jobs lost from June to July.  And, the seasonally adjusted number you read and hear all over the media.
              Jobs lost June to July         Seasonally adjusted           
2016   -1,030,000                   +255,000
2015   -   943,000                   +277,000
2014   -1,079,000                   +232,000
2013   -1,174,000                   +140,000
2012   -1,211,000                   +134,000

For the last three years they have applied a very healthy seasonal adjustment.

Below is a close up of the cycle. Click to enlarge.

Is the BLS lying?  Actually, it is the census bureau that does the survey.  Are they lying?  Or is it legitimate considering the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank is forecasting a third quarter GDP of 3.8%.  I seems like good times are ahead.

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