Sunday, August 28, 2016

My Jackson Hole conclusion


It is my belief that the speakers at Jackson Hole were setting the stage for pretty big inflation.  That is, they want some serious inflation.  It needs to happen not from central banks but from deficit spending.

Quote not from Jackson Hole:

Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, "policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future."

In my opinion congress will legislate authority for the Fed to directly monetize deficit spending.  I think that they will partially monetize new deficit spending at the start.

It is also my opinion that it will be recognized that general price increases on top of the ongoing massive inflation in insurance/health care, rent, and education, will be too much for the majority of the population.

With or without Hillary Clinton I think subsidies to the middle class are pre-ordained.  They will start out small.  But it will be increased rapidly.  After all, what are they going to spend the trillion dollar deficits on if it isn’t welfare?  Well, climate change and the military will get a good cut of it too.

All this will happen when the next economic slowdown gives them the excuse to do it.

I think the only restraint is fear of too much inflation.  That fear will be overridden.

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