Excluding government jobs, that is, Private Payrolls only, there is a different seasonal pattern. November is a cycle peak though now and then December has a small number more jobs. January crashes from the holiday layoffs which includes shipping and warehousing jobs, not just retail.
Then jobs climb to an intracycle peak in August followed by a trough in September. This is summer vacation employment ending. Then jobs grow in October and November reaching a cycle peak in November or December.
The August intracycle peak this year was really poor. One million six hundred and eighty four thousand more jobs than in November. You have to go all the way back seven years to get a worse performance.
It will take one million seventeen thousand more jobs to equal the job growth of the last cycle which was two million seven hundred one thousand jobs.
Of course, there is an expected job drop next month in September so it will be more than this required.