Friday, September 2, 2016

Jobs report for August 2016 - my job report

Table: under each month is the number of more jobs than there were the preceding November. (left column reads 144,122,000 or one hundred forty four million, one hundred twenty-two thousand jobs).

The number of jobs peak every November then crash in January.  Then jobs grow to a peak in June, then trough in July.  This intracycle peak and trough is important because it is from the trough that job growth has to climb its way back to a new peak in November.

This year’s slowdown in job growth shouldn’t be surprising as many economic indicators show a slowdown.

July only has 78,000 more jobs than the past November.  This is practically zero growth.  It is a low starting point for growing to November.

As you can see the cycle ending November 2015 showed the same rate of growth as 2014 with 2,791,000 more jobs than 2014 which had 2,788,000 more jobs than 2013.

I don’t see jobs growing at a rate of 2.5+ million per year as a bad thing.  I just don’t like seeing a slowdown because slowdowns can be followed by more slowdown.

These numbers are Non-Farm employment and includes government jobs. This is from the Establishment data not the household phone survey.

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